Top trade negotiators from Canada and the United States met for the third day in a row in Washington, D.C., in an effort to finalize a trade deal before new U.S. tariffs begin on Saturday.
Friday’s negotiations are aimed at avoiding a 50% import tax that U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods.
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Tariffs were already suspended earlier this week, and many experts said they were optimistic about another last-minute breakthrough.
“All signs point to the fact that a deal is imminent before the current extension expires, or at best we could see a further extension negotiated next week,” said Bina Najibulla, co-founder and CEO of the Center for Strategic and National Strategy, a nonpartisan policy think tank in Canada.
However, despite progress, any deal does not mean the United States will eliminate all tariffs on Canada, Najibullah warned in an interview with Al Jazeera.
In fact, if an agreement is reached, it could be the beginning of a easing of tensions that have lasted for 18 months. During his second term in 2025, President Trump imposed tariffs on major Canadian imports, and Ottawa retaliated with a series of countermeasures.
Since then, the two countries have had an up-and-down relationship, with President Trump regularly raising the threat of new tariffs.
The measures, introduced in late July, were in response to what President Trump called Canada’s “discriminatory treatment of American products.” President Trump has threatened to impose new 50% tariffs on Saturday at 12:01 a.m. ET (4:01 p.m. Japan time) if a deal is not reached, a deadline that has been extended from Wednesday.
Canada’s trade minister with the United States, Dominic LeBlanc, did not speak to reporters when he arrived for the talks.
LeBlanc spoke for more than three hours Thursday with U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer, saying the two sides were “very close” to an agreement, but added that more work was needed.
hard sell
Even if a deal is reached, Prime Minister Mark Carney may have a hard time selling the deal to Canadians and the powerful premiers who lead the country’s 10 provinces and three territories, because the impact of tariffs will vary by region.
A poll released Wednesday by research firm Leger Opinion found that 56 per cent of Canadians do not want Carney to make any more concessions.
The deal is expected to reduce the top tariff on Canadian-made cars from 25% to 15%, and cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum by half to 25%, the people said. Ontario, a major producer of steel and aluminum, wants the tariffs lifted.
Mr. Carney’s push for major states to lift bans on the sale of American alcohol is a major stimulus for Washington.
“The politics are very complicated for Mr. Carney,” Najibullah said. “The prime minister is in a very difficult position because Canadian public opinion is against any concessions to the United States.”
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said Thursday that President Trump is “very weak” and Canada should take advantage of that.
“I think we have the upper hand. They are fighting back now. They are coming to us looking for an agreement, so I think we should fight,” he told reporters.
But Canada is uniquely vulnerable to punitive U.S. trade actions because it is one-tenth the size of the United States and sends about 70 percent of its total exports south of the border.
“Politically, Canada needs a decent deal that (Mr. Carney) can sell domestically,” said Rachel Ziemba, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a policy nonprofit. “But as much as President Trump’s tariff hikes are accelerating inflation for American consumers, the economic benefits for the United States are significant.”
Ziemba added that the devil will be in the details of the final deal. What items are exempt from tariffs, and to what extent, could impact ongoing negotiations on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
Currently, under that free trade agreement, most Canadian exports are exempt from U.S. tariffs.
MAGA based rally
But while experts say U.S. tariffs are leading to higher prices for American consumers, the Trump administration is trying to use the president’s conflict with Canada to rally his nationalist base.
On Wednesday, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance mocked Mr. Carney, saying he “comes in and puffs his chest out and says, ‘I’m like, I’m going to beat Donald Trump.'”
In a recording obtained by the Canadian Press, Vance can be heard speaking negatively about tariff negotiations.
“It’s interesting because Prime Minister Carney is presenting this as some sort of victory for Canada, even though we’re fundamentally coming to terms with so many issues,” Vance said.
Vance was speaking at a fundraiser in Southampton, New York. The recording of his comments spurred calls in Canada for the Carney government to avoid concessions in the latest trade negotiations and to remain focused on Canada’s national interests.
