Six months have passed since February 28, when the United States and Israel shocked the world with a missile attack on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior Iranian officials in Tehran and killed scores of children at a school in Minab, southern Iran.
US President Donald Trump subsequently claimed the conflict would only last “four to five weeks.”
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In the months since, war has broken out on several other fronts, reaching as far as the Caspian Sea. It has sparked a global oil supply crisis as the United States and Iran vie for control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a fifth of oil and gas cargoes pass through.
And as a result, an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 people died and tens of thousands were injured.
Experts say the conflict is also reshaping the world order, with new alliances forming and dominant ones showing signs of disintegrating.
Here’s what we know:
Did the United States achieve its war objectives?
The U.S. objectives were initially unclear, with officials initially claiming the attack was carried out in pre-emptive self-defense.
According to a hodgepodge of demands laid out on the eve of war and sometimes contradictory statements from Trump and senior U.S. defense officials, they include:
Iran’s nuclear program
Despite President Trump’s assertion that the United States had “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear capabilities when it helped end Israel’s 12-day war against Iran in June 2025, the United States and Israel again asserted in February that Tehran was just weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon.
Although repeated attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities during the war likely caused significant damage to the facilities, Tehran is still believed to have 440 kg of highly enriched uranium that could be used to make weapons.
The Trump administration had wanted Iran to hand over the stockpile to the United States and promise to no longer enrich uranium. Iran refused, but at one point appeared open to the possibility of handing over the shares to a third country. Iran also insisted on maintaining the ability to develop a nuclear power program that requires much lower levels of uranium enrichment.
President Trump then briefly floated the idea of the U.S. military using force to retrieve the inventory, a potentially dangerous mission.
In a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by the two countries on June 17, Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons — something it has always promised anyway. The memorandum collapsed after its vague language sparked disagreement over what it actually stipulated.
Clark Summers, a U.S. military veteran and professor at Belmont Abbey College in North Carolina, said the United States can “rightly claim that these objectives have been met. However, it is difficult to assess how long Iran will be able to rebuild.”
But Iran expert and Australian National University (ANU) professor Alam Saleh disagreed, pointing out that Iran’s nuclear power program was still intact. “The United States was losing even before the war,” he said, adding that the effort showed the United States had failed in last year’s 12-day war.
regime change in iran
On February 28, the first day of the war, the United States killed Khamenei along with other senior officials. Two days earlier, President Trump said a change of government was “the best thing that could happen.”
As the U.S. launched missiles, he also called on “Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment to be brave, daring, heroic and take back their homeland.”
However, Iran’s political leadership remains largely unchanged under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah.
Summers told Al Jazeera that the goal was not carefully planned and may have been “ad hoc” or improvised. But “killing a leader does not represent a strategic outcome, even if it is a tactical success,” Saleh said.
End of support for regional proxy groups
Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” is an umbrella made up of numerous armed groups around the region that are funded by Iran. This includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and several smaller groups in Iraq and Syria.
The Iranian government’s support for them shows no signs of ending, and this request was not included in the memorandum of understanding signed by the United States.
Hezbollah went to war with Israel to protect Iran, but Iran refuses to negotiate an end to the war unless the Lebanese front is included. Meanwhile, the Houthis have launched a blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait as part of their support for Iran.
Iran’s ballistic missile program
The United States vowed to “completely destroy” Iran’s missile facilities when the country went to war on February 28. The US also promised to destroy Iran’s navy.
President Trump has since claimed that about 82% of Iran’s missiles are lost and its navy is deteriorating.
In April, he said 158 Iranian naval vessels were attacked, while the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) continued to announce dozens of attacks on Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) headquarters.
However, Iran continues to fire missiles, most recently in July when it fired a long-range missile that killed three American soldiers in Jordan.
Additionally, the July memorandum did not include a call to halt Iran’s ballistic missile program.
Iranian oil management
President Trump said in June that the United States would occupy and take control of Kharg Island, the center of Iran’s oil production.
To date, the United States does not control Iranian territory.
What did the United States and Iran gain and lose during the war?
In addition to U.S. demands at the start of the war, several other pressure points emerged during the conflict.
Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Shortly after the war began, Iran effectively closed off the narrow but important Strait of Hormuz, which passes through its territorial waters as well as Oman’s. Since then, traffic has fallen from more than 100 ships per day to an average of about five.
To force the closure, Iran launched attacks on ships that did not have explicit clearance in the strait, the only route to the open sea for Gulf oil and gas producers.
The United States responded with its own naval blockade of Iranian ports in and around the strait. This continues.
Since then, Iran has remained undaunted despite numerous expletive-filled demands from President Trump, many on social media, to reopen the strait. It is currently negotiating plans with Oman for the future of the waterway, which transported more than a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies before the war.
As part of those negotiations, Iran announced this week that it had reached an agreement with Oman for a route it would partially control.
President Trump recently claimed that the United States has “full control” of the strait and that it is open to shipping, but shipping remains at record lows and Iran continues to fire on ships that try to cross without permission.
Iran considers the strait a key lever in its war with the United States, and Salah said it views it as an “existential threat.”
economic impact
Iran: The impact of the war on Iran’s economy has been severe. The Iranian rial has virtually collapsed. During the war, food prices soared, and the U.S. economic blockade and new sanctions hampered Iran’s oil exports, with the blockade reducing oil revenues by at least $6 billion. Iran’s economy has been battered by U.S. sanctions for years, but a fragile ceasefire has provided temporary relief. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said last week that the economic pressure is “a recurrence that we know in our heads” and that the country knows how to weather it. United States: American consumers are also feeling the pressures of war at the gas pumps, making the conflict extremely unpopular. A July poll by The Associated Press found that two-thirds of Americans oppose the conflict. Summers said many people tend to forget that there was a war, but when gas prices rise, they are reminded of the war. Gas prices have doubled in states like California. Experts say that anger is likely to lead to a political backlash against Republicans in November’s midterm elections.
Relations with allies
Iran: Iran is not gaining popularity in the region because it targets U.S. military assets as well as military and non-military infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states and Jordan, experts say. Iran has damaged infrastructure in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. These countries claim this is a violation of their sovereignty. However, economic and political ties between China and Iran have remained intact, and Beijing has managed to perform a delicate dance by insisting on opposing sanctions against Iran while avoiding getting drawn into the conflict entirely. Trade relations with Russia also remain strong. United States: The United States faces reluctance from its NATO allies to support this war. He refused to join the war despite a direct request from President Trump. Spain and Italy in particular have strongly criticized the conflict, as has Germany, Israel’s strongest ally in Europe. France rejected requests to send warships to enforce the blockade. Gulf allies Pakistan and Turkiye have similarly refused, while in Asia Japan, Australia and South Korea have all refused to get involved. Gulf allies are also likely considering the fact that the US war against Iran is causing them to be targeted.
military ability
Iran: U.S. experts say the U.S. government is correct in its claims that it has degraded Iran’s military capabilities. According to President Trump, multiple military bases were attacked and Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile has decreased by about 82%. However, Iran continues to fire missiles and, although its nuclear facilities are damaged, it still maintains stockpiles of enriched uranium. Experts say Iran is likely to have a greater desire for nuclear weapons now than it did before the war began. Tehran also continues to produce and deploy cheap, mass-produced Shahed drones. By April, an estimated 1,221 military personnel had been killed, but the actual death toll is likely much higher. United States: The United States lost 18 soldiers and over 750 were injured. This is “pretty low,” Summers said. However, US media reports suggest that the Pentagon has significantly depleted its stockpile of some of its most powerful and expensive weapons, particularly Patriot defense missiles, something the US government denies. Only a few dozen of these missiles are produced each year, each costing millions of dollars. In August, the United States signed a $22.9 billion contract with manufacturer Raytheon to increase production of Tomahawk cruise missiles from 60 to more than 1,000 a year.
Is there a perfect “winner”?
Observers say that’s not the case.
“Both countries have achieved nothing,” ANU’s Saleh said, pointing out that the United States, despite being a “superpower” fighting a “middle power”, has failed to translate its military superiority into real benefits.
China and Russia are likely observing U.S. weaknesses and making new military calculations in case of a future conflict with the U.S., he said. This also has implications for Taiwan, especially since the United States has deployed its last aircraft carrier in the Pacific to the Middle East. The shift means the United States will no longer have aircraft carriers in the Western Pacific, despite Washington’s past strategic focus on the region.
However, Saleh said, “Just because Iran survived does not mean it is a winner.” “This may be a defeat for the United States, but it is not a victory for Iran either.”
