Six months ago, the United States and Israel attacked targets across Tehran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and other Iranian leaders.
This fulfills Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-held ambition of a joint attack with the United States against Iran, and Washington is now locked in a war it cannot extricate itself from.
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The United States’ stated war objectives also appear not to have been achieved, and President Donald Trump’s initial claim that Iran’s nuclear capabilities had been destroyed has now been shown to be false.
Prime Minister Netanyahu may have been hoping that the collapse of the Tehran regime would be part of his election campaign. And in Iran, six months of war have done little to turn around the ailing economy, which has become the government’s Achilles heel.
US
During the 2024 US presidential election, the cost of living crisis was a key reason for President Trump’s criticism of the administration of President Joe Biden, but since the war with Iran began on February 28, gasoline prices alone have increased by 50%.
President Trump’s repeated empty claims that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is imminent appear to be doing little to help the struggling Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections in November.
According to numerous surveys, President Trump’s approval rating is at an all-time low, with criticism of his foreign policy evenly matched by disapproval of his domestic record.
“The economic cost of war is an important issue for many people,” Shively Telhami, a professor of government and political science at the University of Maryland, told Al Jazeera.
Adding to the pressure on Trump is a recent Ipsos poll showing that fewer than one in three Americans support the unpopular war against Iran that Trump has entered at the behest of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“Certainly among Democrats, but also initially among younger Republicans, there was a perception that this was a war involving Israel and the United States,” Telhami said. “The Israeli issue is now not just a foreign policy issue, but also an economic issue and a core values issue, making it an elevated public priority.”
In an effort to increase pressure on Tehran to agree to a deal more favorable to the United States, President Trump imposed new sanctions on Tehran last week, dubbing it “Economic D-Day.”
Yet, despite the heavy toll of war, sanctions on Iran’s economy, and military destruction, American author and diplomat Aaron David Miller pointed out that Tehran’s government has survived.
“The highly enriched uranium is still in the country and could still be enriched. Iran has also weaponized geography in that it has effectively blocked the strait,” he told Al Jazeera.
“Similarly, Hamas and their proxies in Hezbollah, although greatly reduced, are still in place and remain capable. They have not generated the public unrest or domestic dissent that the United States had hoped for. In terms of deterring Iran, this is a huge success for Iran.”
The failure of President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s military efforts against Iran could have long-term implications for U.S. foreign policy.
“It is unlikely that any future administration would consider such military action again,” Miller said.
Israel
Aaron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst and senior professor at King’s College London, said Netanyahu was seen as having failed in Gaza, Lebanon and now Iran. For Prime Minister Netanyahu, war in Iran is perceived by many Israelis to be a grave security mistake.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu is trailing in the polls, and for good reason,” Bregman said. “Instead of focusing on stopping Iran from acquiring an atomic bomb, he focused on regime change and persuading President Trump to cooperate. All failed, and Iran is now closer than ever to acquiring an atomic bomb.”
The US decision to sign a memorandum of understanding with Iran in June without Israeli involvement gave Netanyahu’s political opponents multiple reasons to attack him.
“I think Prime Minister Netanyahu was hoping this would change the course of the election,” former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy told Al Jazeera. “The war didn’t give him that kind of momentum because it didn’t go as planned. If anything, this war joins the list of things he over-promised and under-promised, given how much it was expected to be a defining moment.”
It is widely believed among Israelis that Iran remains a fundamental threat to Israel and that the war did nothing to minimize this.
“[Prime Minister Netanyahu]is in favor of an economic ‘D-Day’ policy, not because he believes it will be decisive or because he believes Iran will surrender in the negotiations, but because he hopes it will stoke President Trump’s discontent and put re-escalation back on the agenda, and things will be different this time,” Levy added.
Iran
Despite the continued existence of the Iranian government, sanctions and the US siege of Iranian ports appear to be impacting Iran’s economy.
According to Iran’s own calculations, the war had already cost the economy more than $145 billion by April, with annual inflation reaching 66% just last month. Taken individually, the U.S. blockade could be costing the country $435 million a day. However, the economy remains resilient to these challenges.
“I don’t want to downplay the effects of economic dysfunction and inflation, but my sense is that these pains are still manageable,” Shahbin Malekzad, a scholar and author on Iran, told Al Jazeera.
He added that Iran’s entire political and military system is rooted in the “timeless mission of defending Iran’s sovereignty and dignity to the world” and helps manage all economic challenges.
But disagreements over economic issues remain within the Iranian government, and a public rift exists between hardliners and moderates over the future of talks with the United States.
Regardless of the domestic political challenges posed by the war, none of the belligerents can admit defeat.
For Iran, the conflict between the United States and Israel goes beyond establishing deterrence and has become a matter of survival.
President Trump’s failure to achieve a short and decisive victory against Iran and the economic and political costs of the war are likely to affect the Republican Party’s performance in the upcoming midterm elections.
For Israel, Iran continues to be perceived as a serious and existential threat, just as it was on February 27th.
