Voters across the United States are scheduled to take part in the midterm elections on November 3rd.
But with just two months left until Election Day, a major legal battle is brewing that could throw the entire voting process into chaos.
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The United States Postal Service (USPS) is expediting measures purportedly to ensure the security of mail-in voting, following concerns of election fraud raised by President Donald Trump.
As of 2024, approximately 48 million U.S. voters will vote by mail. Critics warn that restricting the process could disenfranchise groups that rely on mail-in voting ahead of crucial midterm elections.
But in late August, the Supreme Court granted an emergency request to allow the Trump administration to move forward with reforms.
This has created uncertainty in last-minute election preparations, with some states planning to start early voting as early as September.
On Tuesday, Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal released a whistleblower complaint he received detailing problems with the Postal Service’s plan to restrict mail-in voting.
“Their system is set up to fail and jeopardize the voting rights of millions of Americans who voted by mail,” Blumenthal said in a statement.
What changes are underway and why are they happening now? And what is hidden in the content of the whistleblowing? This explanation will include it and explain it in more detail.
What triggered these changes?
President Trump has long claimed, without evidence, that the opposition Democratic Party was involved in election fraud.
To justify that statement, he made two intertwined unsubstantiated claims.
First, he argues, Democratic-led states allow noncitizens to vote. Second, he argues, states are not doing enough to secure the millions of mail-in ballots that are sent out each election season.
But experts and election officials have cast doubt on these claims.
“There’s a myth that mass mail-in ballots aren’t mailed to anyone by election offices, they’re just mailed to phantom people,” said Stephen Richer, a former Republican elections official who is now a fellow at the Cato Institute think tank and a lecturer at Harvard University.
Election fraud is incredibly rare, and experts say the few documented cases have not affected the election outcome.
Why are claims of election fraud so widespread?
Critics say raising concerns about election fraud is a tactic that undermines confidence in American democracy.
This in turn could lead to a decline in voter turnout. Misinformation can cause public confusion and also make it easier for malicious parties to manipulate election results.
Politicians have also cited such claims to push for voting restrictions, which critics say could limit who can access elections.
A study released this year by the University of California, San Diego, found that voters’ trust in the United States has fallen by 17 percentage points over the past two years. It currently stands at 60%, down from 77% in 2024.
How widely is voting by mail used?
About 30% of people who voted in the 2024 election sent their ballots by mail, according to the Election Assistance Commission, a nonpartisan government committee.
This is a slight decrease compared to 2020, at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. About 43 percent of votes were cast by mail that year, as many voters chose to avoid polling places due to health concerns.
In some states, primarily in the western United States, the majority of votes are cast by mail.
According to 2024 estimates, about 99 percent of Oregon’s votes were cast by mail. Rates were similarly high in neighboring states. The rates were 98 in Washington state, 93 in Hawaii, 91 in Colorado, and 91 in Utah.
Critics note that many states that rely on mail-in voting, such as Oregon and Washington, are traditionally Democratic.
Who creates mail-in ballots?
Preparing, shipping and collecting ballots is a massive undertaking, often starting months before the actual election.
State and county officials design ballots specific to their jurisdictions. The ballot will then be shipped through the post office. Voters can return their ballots by mail or through official election return boxes.
To ensure a mail-in vote is valid, local election officials review the ballot, checking the name and address against a list of voters and checking the signature against records.
What prompted the change in the Postal Service?
President Trump issued an executive order in March ostensibly aimed at ensuring the integrity of federal elections.
The bill directed the Postal Service to propose new rules to reform the design of mail-in voting, including identifying barcodes that the federal government can scan and track.
As part of the new system, each state will be required to provide a list of voters who plan to vote by mail.
President Trump’s executive order states that the Postal Service “shall not transmit mail-in or absentee ballots from individuals who are not registered on a state-specific list.”
What legal challenges did this order face?
A lower court in Massachusetts blocked the March executive order, ruling that the Trump administration overstepped its constitutional authority.
Under the Constitution, control of elections rests with the states, not the federal government.
But last month, the Supreme Court temporarily cleared the way for the Trump administration to enact changes by lifting a lower court injunction.
But the legal battle continues. Twenty-four states filed new lawsuits after the Postal Service announced restrictions on mail-in voting were going into effect, as did a coalition of voting rights groups.
On August 27, the same judge in Massachusetts issued an order blocking the new rules from going into effect for 14 days while the parties prepare a more detailed case.
Are President Trump’s mail-in voting rules practical?
Aside from the question of the constitutionality of President Trump’s efforts, there are also practical concerns about changing voting procedures so close to an election.
Richer, a former election official, told Al Jazeera he doubted whether the post office was ready to take on the added responsibility of tracking down ballots.
“The USPS will be taking on a significant new burden of maintaining a list of all mail-in voters in the United States and checking every ballot before it is shipped,” Richer said. “There’s a lot more room for mistakes to happen now.”
What is the content of whistleblowing?
A whistleblower complaint obtained by Sen. Blumenthal alleges that President Trump’s executive order, which seeks to implement new rules by Election Day, has caused chaos at the Postal Service.
The Postal Service was aiming to launch an online portal this week that would allow state election officials to review the ballots they plan to mail to voters, a whistleblower said.
But the complaint alleges that the Postal Service had trouble building a working software system in a short period of time.
The software is reportedly designed to match barcodes on ballot envelopes to lists of voters. Part of the problem, the whistleblower said, is that if a single barcode cannot be verified, the system will reject the entire ballot.
These ballots are sent back to the states rather than being delivered to voters. The whistleblower pointed out that changes in name or address could result in ballots being rejected.
The complaint also alleges that various parts of the new vote-by-mail system were developed separately and that limited testing to date has shown that these different systems do not work well together.
“Such sloppiness and haste clearly appears to be part of a deliberate attempt to cause confusion and prevent people from voting,” Blumenthal said in an accompanying statement.
If the new rules go into effect, how might they affect elections?
Richer, a former election official, said the new rules could cause serious problems.
He explained that the state’s voter rolls are not “static lists” and change as voters register or update their personal information.
“It’s not like a list we have on hand,” Richer said. “People are changing their address and other information all the time, and whether they want to vote by mail.”
In some states, voters can make changes up to 15 days before the election. That could create difficulties in a system that requires states to submit voting lists to the Postal Service in advance.
Richer also pointed out that these changes to mail-in voting are the same as scrutinizing voter lists. Just cross-reference the person who is scheduled to receive the mail-in ballot.
But Richer said many Trump supporters seem to view the two processes as the same, raising the possibility that future changes will be made to ensure that happens.
