US President Donald Trump has insisted that the seven-month war with Iran will end “immediately” after the US midterm elections in November, framing the ongoing conflict as an attempt by Iran to influence votes.
“They are desperately trying to influence the election,” he told reporters Wednesday.
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President Trump’s recent claims about Iran’s surrender are not new. Tehran has so far endured sustained attacks by the United States and Israel aimed at eradicating its military power, as well as a naval blockade of Iranian ports aimed at crippling the country’s economy. In late August, the United States further increased economic pressure and threatened secondary sanctions against Iran’s trading partners.
Ali Alavi, an Iran lecturer at SOAS, University of London, said of Trump’s prediction of Iran’s collapse after the election: “This was probably a statement aimed at an internal (domestic) audience.” “The way President Trump communicated before the midterm elections was that the only reason his policy toward Iran appeared to be failing was because Iran wanted to be perceived that way.”
price of war
The cost of Iran’s failure to surrender is being felt across the United States ahead of the midterm elections, in which President Trump’s Republicans could lose one or both houses of Congress.
Gasoline prices, a key measure of the cost of living in the world’s largest economy, rose to an average of $4.27 a gallon nationwide, up nearly 30 percent from a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association.
President Trump’s approval rating was in the low 40s when he returned to office in January 2025, but it has now plummeted to the low to mid 30s.
The pain of American voters extends beyond the pumps. According to a 2026 LendingTree study, 29% of Pay Now users have used a loan to purchase groceries, and 47% said they have missed a payment on a Pay Now Pay Later loan at least once in the past year.
Separately, University of Michigan economists said rising fuel costs and inflation related to the war with Iran were weighing on consumer confidence and purchasing power.
“Iran is preparing for a long war,” said Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. “Part of it may have been a secondary plan to hold out long enough to destabilize the U.S. midterm elections once they realized that negotiations with the current administration were not going to work.”
Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have explicitly called on President Trump to end the war with Iran.
Given the difficulties faced by Republicans over the Iran war and other issues, H.A. Hellyer, an international policy analyst at the American Progress Center, said the situation is not as poised for Democrats to win as Republicans are to lose in the run-up to the Nov. 3 congressional midterm elections.
“The issue is really about (voter) turnout,” he explained. “It’s not like a lot of Republicans are suddenly going to turn Democratic, they’re just going to stay home and not vote.”
Hellyer said foreign policy has little impact on voters, but “the economy does matter.”
“The price of things like gasoline at the pump is important and this can sway (elections),” he added.
Regardless of their claims of military success, the United States and Israel face an assessment from voters that their leaders promised an easy victory. The United States and President Trump will win the midterm elections in November, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will win the crucial general election in October. Iran faces no such countdown because it is ruled by an unelected supreme leader and parliamentary elections are not scheduled until 2028.
“Victory for Iran means surviving long enough to extract serious diplomatic commitments that it will not be attacked by its adversaries,” said Baqir of London-based Chatham House. “Victory means showing influence, proving that military power can disrupt the global economy no matter what happens, but it means negative influence.”
“For some in the government, this includes maintaining sea control of the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “For others, it’s just a potential bargaining chip in negotiations, but for everyone, the victory is survival and finding a way to turn it into stability. That’s a difficult challenge.”
