Affordability is a common theme
The main factor for these crossover voters has traditionally been economics.
Mika Rasmussen, director of the Lebovich Institute of New Jersey Politics at Rider University, said affordability campaigns are a common thread among politicians like Mamdani and Trump, even if their platforms are very different.
“Some voters thought Mr. Trump would be the candidate who could solve the issue of affordability, and they thought Mr. Mamdani was the person who could do that,” Rasmussen said.
Ahead of November’s midterm elections, voters once again ranked economy-related issues as their top concern.
A poll released last month by research firm Ipsos found that 48% of voters cited the cost of living as the “most important factor” this election cycle, more than any other issue.
This was true even among some voters who identified only as Republicans or Democrats, as well as among respondents who completely disagreed with their party affiliation.
Whoever can speak most effectively to those voters who voted in favor of the bill could have an advantage in the midterm elections.
There are fewer competitive seats in this year’s midterm elections than in previous election cycles, due in part to redistricting that began in mid-2010 under the Trump administration.
This redistricting effort resulted in about a dozen states redrawing their congressional maps to favor one party over the other.
The midterm elections will determine whether Republicans retain their majority in Congress. But margins are tight. Democrats need to win a net of four seats to take back the Senate and three seats in the House.
Fewer competitive seats means voters like Barba are given more weight.
Experts say successful candidates are likely to seek to speak to voters across the political spectrum, but as Mr. Mamdani and Mr. Trump’s demographics suggest, that doesn’t necessarily mean offering a centrist platform.
“In higher turnout elections, like general elections and presidential elections, it’s impossible for your side to win on its own,” Rasmussen said.
“We have to appeal to independent voters across the divide.”
