TORONTO, Canada – At a grocery store in downtown Toronto, small red maple leaves dot the aisles and are displayed next to the prices of items.
It’s easy to miss, but shoppers like Mateusz Gujler are on the lookout. These are easy signs that something is Canadian-made, and are becoming increasingly important to consumers like Gujler as the trade war with the U.S. intensifies.
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Mr. Gujler, a software developer, is part of Canada’s ongoing rise in nationalism. Since President Donald Trump returned to power last year, relations between the two countries have been strained amid a wave of U.S. tariffs.
The tension has made Gujler “more conscious” about buying locally produced products, he said. He rebranded his almond milk, stopped buying LaCroix, and replaced American sparkling water with Canadian alternatives.
“We accept anything that is clearly Canadian,” Gujler told Al Jazeera outside the No Frills grocery store on Wednesday.
This type of shopping has become increasingly common in Canada over the past year. President Trump’s tariffs, along with his repeated statements about making Canada the “51st state,” are accelerating the movement to boycott American products and spend money closer to home.
“We don’t want our money to go to the United States if it can be avoided,” Gujler said.
There is little sign that the feeling is fading. Margaret Chapman, chief operating officer of market research firm Narrative Research, said her company has been tracking Canadians’ attitudes toward buying domestic products for about a year and a half.
“This commitment for Canadians to buy Canadian products and support Canadian products is not a temporary thing,” Chapman told Al Jazeera. “It’s been very strong, it’s continuing, and it’s probably going to continue.”
But that effort could be further complicated if the trade war escalates again. Experts have warned that consumer prices could rise and jobs could be lost.
The trade war is already at a critical stage. Tensions between the United States and Canada escalated in late August after negotiations failed to block President Trump’s threatened 50% tariffs on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, including machinery, textiles and hockey sticks.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney later accused the United States of bringing into the negotiations last-minute demands that included terms that were “uneconomic, unfair, and detrimental to Canada’s net benefits.”
The US tariffs went into effect on August 22nd. In response, Canada on Tuesday imposed new retaliatory tariffs of 15 to 50 per cent on about $20 billion worth of U.S. imports.
Secretary Carney described the measure as a “dollar-for-dollar” response targeting American products ranging from steel and aluminum to dairy products, electronics, clothing and cosmetics.
When will Canadians feel the impact of the tariffs?
So far, many shoppers interviewed by Al Jazeera said they have not noticed any significant price increases. Economists say that’s not surprising.
Advisory firm Oxford Economics estimates that new tariffs will directly affect just 0.25% of the average consumer’s basket, primarily because many of the products Canada targets are used by businesses rather than directly purchased by shoppers.
However, some of the costs may continue to affect consumers indirectly. For example, although relatively few finished foods are directly affected, tariffs are imposed on materials used in food packaging, such as metal cans, glass containers, and plastic films.
This means that while food items themselves are not subject to tariffs, they may still be more expensive.
Retail analyst Bruce Winder said it could take some time for price increases to take effect, as many stores are still selling inventory purchased before the tariffs went into effect.
“I think we’ll probably see a slight increase in retail prices over the next few weeks,” he said.
For now, it is expected that much of the direct financial burden will fall on businesses. Oxford Economics estimates that businesses will bear at least half of the cost of new counter-tariffs, while households will pay around 20% in higher prices.
But Winder said there are limits to how much retailers can absorb, especially if 25% or 50% tariffs remain in place.
And for many Canadians, the uncertainty surrounding the trade war may be just as important as what’s happening with prices.
“I think the bigger part here is the fear, concern and anxiety it creates,” Winder said. “Even though you could argue that tariffs might not hit your pocket that hard, I think people are a little nervous right now given the potential impact on jobs.”
Can Canadians afford to continue buying Canadian products?
This all comes at a time when Canadians are already feeling squeezed.
Meeda Buzzeri, who works in finance, said she intentionally tries to buy Canadian products and avoids American products as much as possible. For her, it’s partly a reaction against Trump.
“Canada is a great economic powerhouse and we are not just another state in the United States,” she said.
But she acknowledges that choosing Canadian can be even more difficult if it means paying significantly higher costs.
“At some point, you’re going to get to a point where you say, ‘This is becoming extreme,'” Buzzelli said. “Grocery prices are getting too high.”
But so far, research suggests Canadian buying activity is resilient.
A study by Narrative Research found that 76 per cent of respondents would choose a hypothetical basket containing C$120 ($86.50) worth of completely Canadian groceries over a cheaper basket worth C$100 ($72) that was more likely sourced from the United States.
Even when the Canadian basket price was CAD 140 (approximately $101), 70% of respondents still chose it.
“People said they would do it and they are doing it,” Chapman said. “Even in tough economic times, people are willing to spend more money to support Canada.”
Gujler is among them. He said he would pay more for Canadian products, but if it was twice the price he might reconsider.
Experts say the real test of consumer commitment to this trend may not be whether Canadians want to support domestic businesses, but how much they can afford.
