US President Donald Trump on Sunday called on Ukraine to stop attacking Russian diesel refineries, accusing the attacks of causing diesel shortages and “hurting the world.”
Russia and Ukraine remain embroiled in an escalating missile war, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and gas facilities are straining Moscow’s oil output, even though Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers.
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President Trump’s own war with Iran has also disrupted energy markets. After the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, oil and fuel prices soared to well over $100 per barrel, but fell during the ceasefire. But as fighting between the United States and Iran resumed and escalated in recent weeks, oil prices have steadily risen, reaching nearly $108 a barrel on Sunday.
Moreover, political pressure is mounting as the U.S. midterm elections approach in November and rising fuel costs are weighing on President Trump’s Republican Party. U.S. diesel prices are currently at record highs.
So is the Ukraine attack really causing a global diesel shortage? Or is it because of President Trump’s own war in the Middle East?
Here’s what we know:
What did Trump say?
President Trump raised the issue at the Amgen Irish Open at his golf course in Doonbeg, Ireland, and told reporters he had discussed the matter with President Zelenskiy.
“The only thing Mr. Zelensky has to do is stop the diesel fuel leak in Russia,” Trump said. “There are many other targets,” he said, attributing the global diesel shortage to the Russia-Ukraine war.
However, Ukraine has long maintained that it considers Russia’s energy infrastructure to be a legitimate military objective, as Russia’s oil and gas industry directly supports Russia’s finances and thus also influences its wars with its western neighbors.
How badly is Ukraine hitting Russian refineries?
Ukraine has been attacking Russian oil facilities for months, leading Russia to impose restrictions on its fuel exports.
Russian fuel oil exports fell to 591,000 barrels per day in August, down from an average of 860,000 barrels per day in 2025, according to Kpler data dating back to 2017.
Hours before President Trump’s comments on Sunday, the Ukrainian military announced that it had attacked the TANECO refinery in Russia’s Republic of Tatarstan. Police said two civilians were killed.
In retaliation, Russia has primarily targeted gas stations near the front lines, with attacks accelerating since April, with at least 246 businesses hit so far.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, told Al Jazeera that while the Ukraine strike has had a severe impact on Russia’s key export industries, the real impact for now is on Russia’s civilian population. Late last month, dozens of gas stations in St. Petersburg ran out of supply. Long lines of customers were seen at gas stations across Russia.
“For the time being, the impact is primarily on civilians, and it is a move aimed at increasing domestic pressure on the Russian president,” Beacham told Al Jazeera about Ukraine’s motives for attacking Russian energy facilities.
How much diesel does Russia supply to the world?
Due to Russia’s export restrictions and damage to its refineries in the attack on Ukraine, global diesel supplies are at about 150,000 barrels per day, 81% lower than the five-year average.
According to the International Energy Agency, combined diesel exports from Russia and the Gulf in August were 1.6 million barrels per day lower than in February, when they accounted for nearly 45% of global trade.
How much have U.S. diesel prices increased?
Diesel prices in the U.S. have increased nearly 65% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February, with the national average on Sunday at about $6.20 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.
Regular gasoline (gasoline) costs $4.31 per gallon, an increase of about 45% over the same period.
Ships, trains, and trucks all run on diesel, so rising prices are leading to higher costs for everyday goods. According to a recent Financial Times poll, President Trump’s approval rating for his economic response has fallen to just 17% as the US economy becomes a hot topic ahead of the midterm elections.
Why are diesel prices soaring?
Beacham says the Ukraine strike is just a “small element” of the bigger picture.
He explained that the United States has not imported Russian diesel since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Oil prices had fallen 40% before the Iran war began, and Beecham instead cited US military action in the Middle East as the main reason for the rise in diesel prices, which he said “could send the global economy into recession.”
The IEA has drawn a similar conclusion: Damage to Russia’s refineries and reduced exports are compounding losses already caused by the Gulf War.
The Strait of Hormuz once transported about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies, but remains a push-pull between the United States and Iran. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a key alternative export route, was cut off on Thursday following a drone attack believed to have been launched from Iraq.
Beyond oil prices, refineries in the Middle East and Russia that convert oil into usable fuel have been affected by the war.
“If the Ukrainian attacks stop, prices may come down a bit in the short term,” Beacham told Al Jazeera. “But if the main factors remain unresolved, that move will quickly be reversed.”
