The United States is reportedly considering significantly reducing its military presence in Europe after European allies rejected Washington’s use of air bases for its war against Iran.
US media reported this week that senior Pentagon commanders plan to submit a plan to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in the coming days.
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The news comes as Russia continues its war against Ukraine and European countries increasingly sound the alarm about possible subversive activities on their territory. Germany accused Russia of a drone attack on an airport earlier this month.
For decades, Europe has relied on cooperation with the United States through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to deter Russian aggression. But relations between some European capitals and the US government have deteriorated over the past year.
Here’s what we know about the options the U.S. might consider.
Why is the US reconsidering its presence in Europe?
The Pentagon is considering several possible options for reducing troop and military assets in Europe as part of a review of NATO announced in June, NBC News reported, citing security sources.
Mr Hegseth hinted at the review at a NATO meeting in Brussels in June, during which he slammed other member states, saying the new changes were “designed to ensure that NATO moves quickly and irreversibly towards strengthening itself to assume primary responsibility for leasing Europe and for defending Europe”.
Hegseth said the European allies’ decision to deny US troops access to European bases to launch attacks on Iran was “shameful.”
“These allies are putting America’s sons and daughters, and our sons and daughters, at risk by denying them predictable access, bases, and overflights that should never have been an issue.”
What options is Hegseth considering?
One option would be to withdraw a third of the estimated 68,000 U.S. troops in Europe. The option would have a major impact on soldiers stationed in Germany, Italy and Spain, NBC reported.
In a second, more drastic scenario, 40,000 soldiers could be withdrawn, along with military aircraft, warships and weapons.
The United States may also consider moving troops from its presence in central or western Europe to NATO’s eastern flank, closer to Russia.
Hegseth is expected to make a final decision by November 6, NBC reported.
Has the US already withdrawn its troops from Europe?
yes. Last year, about half of the 2,000 US troops stationed in Romania left.
About 5,000 U.S. troops are withdrawing from Germany, where more than half of the European troops are based.
The withdrawal announcement in May came after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized the US war against Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly blocked the White House from withdrawing up to 25,000 troops at the time, although Trump threatened to “go further,” according to US media.
What does a U.S. military drawdown mean for Europe?
Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund said a mass withdrawal of troops and assets would be important for Europe and would undermine the U.S. nuclear deterrent on the continent.
Although Russia is unlikely to attack a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member state, it certainly sees advantages in such a development, analysts said.
“But that depends on when and where the troops are withdrawn,” Lesser added, noting that it is difficult to estimate the impact on Europe at this point. For example, he said, even if troops moved from Western Europe to the East, that might not be a concern because countries like Germany and France are rapidly building up their militaries.
But experts say the United States would also suffer losses if it withdraws troops, reducing its ability to project power across Europe.
President Trump’s Republican leaders have expressed concerns about this.
After German troops began departing, Sen. Roger Wicker and Rep. Mike Rogers said in a joint statement that the move “could send the wrong signal to (Russian President) Vladimir Putin.”
Why are relations between the United States and Europe deteriorating?
Since his first term, Mr. Trump has repeatedly criticized European NATO members for leaving the United States to shoulder much of the alliance’s financial burden. President Trump said last January that NATO countries should start spending 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense rather than relying on U.S. aid, but many NATO members are still struggling to meet the current 2% goal.
NATO members have already agreed to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035.
Adding to President Trump’s frustration, however, is the refusal of European countries to join the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran by allowing the US to use European bases. Some member states, such as Spain and Italy, have actively spoken out against Washington’s war efforts.
Another issue is tariffs. The EU exports large amounts of goods to the United States, but President Trump last year imposed 15% tariffs on European imports as part of his trade war.
The EU and the US also clashed last year after President Trump said the US wanted to acquire Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark that is strategically located in the Arctic and has untapped reserves of oil and other resources. President Trump has threatened to impose additional trade tariffs on European countries if they stand in his way. He later withdrew that threat and said he would not seek to occupy Greenland by force.
On Friday, President Trump announced that a new agreement had been reached with Greenland and Denmark that would give the United States “permanent control over Greenland’s security and all other needs,” and suggested it could also provide the United States with access to its natural resources.
Are other U.S. allies also facing problems?
Taiwan, another traditional defense partner of the United States, is also finding it increasingly difficult to rely on the United States.
Since 1950, Taipei has relied on the US presence in the Pacific to deter attacks from China. However, President Trump has made several statements that cast doubt on that relationship.
For example, he said that Taiwan should pay protection costs to the United States in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election. He also said Taiwan should “calm down” because the United States does not want to go to war in the region.
As the war against Iran continues, the United States is increasingly diverting military assets from the Pacific to the Iranian conflict, raising concerns about Taiwan’s vulnerability. Most recently, the Trump administration redeployed the last remaining aircraft carrier in the Pacific to the Middle East to rescue the Abraham Lincoln, which had been at sea nonstop for months.
The US also appears reluctant to support Saudi Arabia, with which it has a security agreement, against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, while all US allies in the Gulf have suffered severe damage to their energy and military facilities in Iranian attacks on US assets.
