Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump at the White House during the first state visit by a Chinese leader in more than a decade, as the world’s two largest economies are embroiled in a battle over trade and artificial intelligence.
Trump is expected to welcome Xi on the tarmac of Joint Base Andrews on the outskirts of Washington, DC, in an unusual three-day visit by a Chinese leader.
After returning to power in 2025, he tightened tariffs on Chinese goods and has since imposed restrictions on sales of AI chips to China as the two countries vie for supremacy in the AI race.
The future of the fragile trade truce will be high on the agenda when the two leaders meet on Thursday. U.S. trade with China will decline significantly in 2025, dropping by nearly 30% from the previous year.
However, China’s trade with other countries has increased rapidly, with the Chinese government recording a global trade surplus of $1.2 trillion last year.
So what will be on the agenda for the talks, and who will really win the US-China trade war?
What will happen to the US-China trade war?
As of July 2026, Chinese goods in the United States are subject to a 36.5 percent tariff, and American goods imported into China are subject to a 31 percent tax, according to a Congressional Research Service report. These tariff rates are average and not product specific.
Rates vary widely depending on the product. For example, as of June 2026, China’s effective tax rate on copper and its products is 73.6%, aluminum and its products at 65.2%, steel products at about 50-58%, and cars and auto parts at 44.4%. These diagrams show the different pricing structures that apply to specific products.
Meanwhile, China maintains an additional 10% tariff on U.S. imports in addition to regular tariffs and item-specific tariffs. For example, US crude oil could face 20%, LNG 25%, soybeans 13%, and US beef up to 77%.
Shortly after returning to office in January 2025, President Trump imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, citing concerns about fentanyl and immigration, leading to the ongoing trade war. Beijing responded by imposing taxes on U.S. coal, LNG, crude oil and automobiles, as well as placing additional restrictions on exports of five metals key to defense and clean energy.
By April 2025, the trade war had escalated, with 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, while the Chinese government imposed 125% tariffs on U.S. imports in addition to restricting rare earth exports.
The rival companies have signed a tariff truce following talks in South Korea, which is set to expire on November 10.
However, the ceasefire does not prevent the US and China from engaging in trade restrictions. Last month, the United States imposed restrictions in other areas, including banning imports of humanoid robots made in China, sanctioning Chinese shipping companies for allegedly handling Iranian fuel, and threatening sanctions on Chinese AI companies.
The Chinese government said it had “no choice but to take necessary countermeasures” and announced a package that would impose sanctions on U.S. companies and curb exports of drones and technology to the United States.
Is the trade war limited to tariffs?
No, tariffs are just one aspect of the broader economic and technological competition between the United States and China.
In addition to turning supply chains into instruments of economic pressure, trade disputes also include sanctions, corporate listings, investment restrictions, and research restrictions.
China’s influence has focused on critical minerals, restricting exports of rare earths essential for semiconductor manufacturing and AI. The Chinese government controls nearly 90% of the world’s processing and refining capacity, and its control makes these restrictions especially critical for electronics, electric vehicles and defense equipment.
Meanwhile, Washington’s main strength is advanced technology. The United States has restricted China’s access to advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment, but its policies have become more selective in recent months.
Earlier this month, the United States began a trial against Huawei, accusing the Chinese tech giant of stealing technology.
How has it affected U.S.-China trade?
Bilateral trade between the U.S. and China fell 29% from $584 billion in 2024 to $415 billion in 2025, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The contraction continued this year, with trade between the two countries reaching $222 billion in the January-July period, down 14.5% compared to the same period in 2025 and 31% in the January-July 2024 period.
This decline is primarily driven by a decline in US imports from China. U.S. imports decreased from $194 billion in the January-July period of 2025 to $156 billion in the same period in 2026, a 34.6% decrease compared to the same period in 2024.
China’s imports of U.S. goods totaled $65 billion in the first seven months of this year, about the same as the same period last year, but down about 20% compared to 2024.
The US trade deficit with China decreased from $297 billion in 2024 to $203 billion in 2025. The deficit from January to July 2026 was $91 billion, but the significant reduction in the deficit is due to the United States importing fewer Chinese products rather than selling more.
Has the trade war hurt China?
While bilateral trade between the United States and China has suffered, China’s exports have increasingly been diverted to other markets as Beijing capitalizes on President Trump’s tariff wars with countries around the world.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s total merchandise exports increased by 6.1% in 2025, reaching approximately $3.77 trillion.
China’s exports to ASEAN countries will increase by 14% to approximately $660 billion in 2025, making them China’s largest export market. Exports to European Union countries rose 9% to about $560 billion.
According to government statistics, China’s exports increased by 13.4% in the first half of this year, marking the 11th consecutive quarterly increase. For example, trade volume between China and ASEAN reached $744 billion in the first seven months, an increase of 24.7% year-on-year.
China is moving up the value chain of electric vehicles, batteries, electronics, machinery and other high-tech products, increasing sales to countries in Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America.
As of August this year, China’s trade surplus in goods was about $820 billion, and it is already approaching the huge 2025 full-year surplus of about $1.2 trillion.
Has the US trade deficit decreased under the Trump administration?
No, no. The central argument behind President Trump’s tariff regime is rooted in reducing Washington’s trade deficit, but the trade deficit in goods and services remains stagnant.
According to U.S. government data, the fiscal deficit in 2024, before President Trump took office, was $1.201 trillion. In fact, it increased to $1.235 trillion in 2025, an increase of 2.8% in the first year of Trump’s second term.
Since most tariffs went into effect in April 2025, the U.S. goods trade deficit widened further in the corresponding month of 2026.
From May to July 2025, the U.S. had a total goods trade deficit of about $277 billion, according to Census Bureau data. The deficit for the same period in 2026 increased by 17.4% to $325 billion.
The deepening trade deficit has grown larger each month: $105 billion (2026) vs. $92 billion (2025) in May, $101 billion vs. $84 billion (2025) in June, and $119 billion vs. $101 billion in July.
