According to the New York Times, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he had considered the possibility of a U.S. military attack on Canada.
In an interview with the newspaper on Wednesday, Carney described the attack as an “extreme tail risk,” an event with a very low probability but potentially serious consequences.
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“It’s just risk management,” said Carney, a former governor of the Bank of England. “It would be irresponsible not to do so.”
Experts say Mr. Carney’s comments do not suggest war is a possibility or that Canada is preparing for war, but they do indicate that Mr. Carney thinks war is unlikely. Here’s what that means:
Why are relations between Canada and the United States strained?
The main points of contention are the ongoing trade war and President Trump’s rant against Canada becoming a US state.
trade war
Shortly after returning to the White House in 2025, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from both Canada and Mexico, saying the tariffs would not be lifted until both countries took steps to curb the flow of the highly addictive and deadly drug fentanyl into the United States. The leaders of Mexico and Canada struck a deal to suspend impending tariffs for 30 days, but reimposed tariffs on Canada in early March after President Trump declared that he had not done enough.
He threatened to raise the digital services tax to 35% in July 2025 unless Canada repeals its agreed-upon digital services tax.
Canada, the largest foreign supplier of steel and aluminum to the United States, was also hit hard by President Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum worldwide in March 2025.
Trade negotiations have been ongoing since last year but ultimately collapsed in August, after which both sides imposed new retaliatory tariffs. President Trump imposed a 50% tax on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, and Canada imposed a similar tax on American goods.
The problem for Canada is that its economy is closely tied to that of the United States, making a trade war particularly significant. In 2025, about 72% of Canada’s $556 billion in merchandise exports will go to the United States.
security threats
Mr. Trump has emphasized this dependence. “I think Canada would be much better off becoming the 51st state,” the US president said in 2025.
When trade talks collapsed this year, President Trump responded to Secretary Carney’s announcement by writing on his platform Truth Social: “Canada is not a nation, but wants the benefits of being a nation!!!”
President Trump also took the provocative step of renaming Lake Ontario, along the Canada-U.S. border, “Lake of America.”
So Carney is trying to reduce that dependence. Prime Minister Carney said Canada’s government is also reconsidering its plans to buy the U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets and intends to reduce its reliance on SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service.
This month, he visited the European Union and the United Kingdom in a bid to expand alliances. The EU has proposed associate membership for Canada, and Canada has applied to join the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a British-led European military alliance.
Tai Solomon, a professor of international relations at the University of Glasgow, told Al Jazeera that there are “at least two issues at play” when it comes to tensions with the United States. The first is “President Trump’s hostility toward Canada,” reflected in his threat to annex Canada as a “51st state” and the tariffs imposed by both countries.
Solomon said the second is the changing security environment, including last year’s threat to annex Greenland by the United States and “continued Russian and Chinese interests and activities in the Arctic.” In this “multidimensional geopolitical environment,” “unexpected events in one region can trigger further unanticipated dynamics in other regions,” he said.
U.S. military action is therefore “a slim possibility,” but Eric Taylor Woods, an associate professor of political communication at the University of Leeds, told Al Jazeera that Canadians are still upset by President Trump’s comments and want to know whether the prime minister is protecting the country’s sovereignty.
Mr. Carney laid out this new geopolitical reality at the World Economic Forum in January, urging countries like Canada to work together as major powers exercise more influence.
“Even if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu,” he said.
What would happen if there was a military conflict between the United States and Canada?
Although experts believe the likelihood of a U.S. attack on Canada is extremely low, Solomon said a U.S. attack on Canada remains “somewhat unlikely.”
But Woods said that despite the “huge disparity in military power,” if anything, “I wouldn’t expect Canadians to simply accept the loss of sovereignty.”
“The United States has a much larger and more powerful military than Canada,” Solomon said. “So, on paper, it looks like there’s no contest.”
But he said the protracted U.S. war with Iran called into question assumptions about “overwhelming U.S. military power and effectiveness.”
Additionally, Solomon said that if that were to happen, it would be an “unmitigated disaster for America’s global interests.”
He added: “Any remaining trust in the United States will completely evaporate, and efforts by other democracies to forge new alliances outside of the U.S. security and alliance system will greatly accelerate.”
What happens next?
It seems likely that both parties will continue to be anxious.
Mr. Carney said he was still willing to reach a trade deal with Mr. Trump. He told the New York Times that they had spoken “frequently” since trade talks broke down. “We can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” he said. “He’s candid. I’m candid too.”
Woods also noted that Trump has so far avoided the “personal schoolyard insults and slurs” that Trump often directed at Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.
“Personally, I don’t think Mr. Carney and his advisers have any trust in the Trump administration, which is known for changing its ideas and U.S. foreign policy on a whim,” Solomon said.
“As a leader, it is very difficult to trust this kind of behavior because any agreement is built on an uncertain foundation.”
