NATO’s top commander has announced a new war plan to counter Russian aggression against alliance members, incorporating lessons learned from the Ukrainian front.
Speaking about NATO’s so-called “victory theory” at the Warsaw Security Forum on Monday, Gen. Aleksas Grinkevich, who has served as U.S. European Command commander and supreme allied commander in Europe since 2025, said the plan is based on a three-pronged strategy designed to stop aggression in its path: “deter, blunt, and destroy.”
The announcement came amid growing warnings from European intelligence agencies of growing threats from Russia, including the possibility of both conventional military action and “hybrid warfare” that could include tactics ranging from cyberattacks to tampering with undersea cables.
In an effort to allay the Alliance’s growing concerns, Grynkewicz said: “What I want to do is assure the 1 billion people of the Alliance that we are achieving this. We know what we have to do. We know how.”
But NATO’s new plans come at a time when the alliance itself appears divided over how to deal with Russia, following a series of recent overtures from US President Donald Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin, including Russia’s latest controversial plan to release diesel stocks onto global markets despite sanctions on Russian oil.
So what does the new NATO plan include and what is the European agency warning about? How did Russia react? And are the alliances on the same page about all this?
What does the new NATO plan include?
General Grinkewicz told the Warsaw Security Forum that NATO does not consider a military conflict with Russia to be “imminent or inevitable” but remains prepared for one.
“To implement the winning theory I’ve outlined today, you’re going to have to issue orders that you absolutely don’t want to issue,” he said. “But there is no doubt about it. In the event of war, we will deter and blunt any attack. And if that does not stop us, we will defeat the forces that are invading us.”
He explained that the “block, blunt, break” strategy is aimed at deterring attacks rather than occupying enemy territory.
Drawing directly from lessons learned from the front lines in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, Grynkevich said the plan relies on the use of “reasonable mass” of precision weapons, such as drones and other autonomous systems.
He said the plan is for allied forces to “interdict” the attack at the border, halt enemy advances on the battlefield, and then “slow down” the attack by attacking incoming forces by air, sea and land. Ultimately, they will aim to “break through” the enemy by targeting supply chains and command networks.
“If necessary, we will destroy enemy forces and operational combat systems prepared against us,” he said. “Enemy formations will be under-supplied. Enemy commanders will lose control of their forces. Enemy forces and support capabilities will be reduced and destroyed.”
Is the Russian threat in Europe increasing?
Germany’s foreign intelligence chief, Martin Jaeger, warned last week that the country risks becoming embroiled in a “violent conflict” with Russia, which considers Berlin its main adversary.
He cited the attempted drone attack on a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport in August as an example of the growing threat. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrint also warned of a Russia-related “shadow war” involving sabotage, cyberattacks and other covert operations.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron last month warned that the Russian-hybrid threat facing France and other European countries had intensified in recent weeks and ordered a plan to protect critical infrastructure.
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said when he took office that he had received confirmation that Russia had interfered in the 2016 Brexit referendum, but he did not publicly elaborate on the evidence behind that assessment. Last week, he traveled to Berlin to meet with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as part of which he discussed plans to fight Russia’s hybrid war.
Russia issued a nuclear warning to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) late last month, saying it was prepared to use its weapons, including nuclear weapons, if the alliance tried to isolate the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which borders Poland and Lithuania.
Romania’s Ministry of Defense announced in July that it had recorded 33 instances of Russian drones intruding into its airspace since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Eighteen of those incidents occurred this year, with Romanian F-16 jets shooting down three drones this year.
Poland also accused Russian intelligence of orchestrating an arson attack on the Starlink satellite internet station in Wola Klobowska last month. Warsaw described the incident as part of Russia’s hybrid war operations against countries supporting Ukraine.
Norway has issued a similar warning. The country’s head of police and security, Beate Gangas, said this week that Europe was facing the most serious security situation since World War II, and similarly expressed concern about Russian sabotage and suspicions of covert operations across the continent.
What did Russia say?
In August, Russia warned Britain that it could face “consequences” if it supplied Ukraine with drones used for long-range attacks inside Russian territory.
“London’s actions will necessarily have consequences and it will have to answer for them,” the Russian embassy in London said in a statement on August 17. “The deeper the involvement in the conflict and the greater the support for terrorist organizations in Kiev, the higher the price to pay.”
Nevertheless, Russia is not preparing for “any kind” of conflict with Europe, President Vladimir Putin said last month. He added that Russia had “no real motive” to escalate tensions and criticized European countries that suggested otherwise.
“Many people in Europe are saying that they are expecting an attack from Russia, and they believe that they must prepare themselves for hostilities and war with Russia,” Putin told reporters in St. Petersburg.
“I want to emphasize again: we are not preparing for any hostilities with Europe,” he said.
Putin added that Russia is considering its position on whether to restart peace talks with Ukraine, following Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russia, particularly against energy infrastructure.
“As for the proposal to resume negotiations, yes, everything is on the table, everything is possible. But after they have done everything, we will carefully consider what measures need to be taken accordingly,” Putin said.
Is NATO unified?
Since taking office as U.S. president, Trump has repeatedly attacked other NATO members for not paying enough for defense. He is also outraged by NATO members’ outright refusal to join the US-Israel war against Iran.
As a result, analysts say there are concerns that President Trump may not be able to provide support within the NATO alliance if needed.
In August, after the Russian consulate in London warned of “consequences” for the UK of providing long-range drones to Ukraine, former Russian deputy foreign minister Andrei Fedorov told the BBC that could include the possibility of an attack. He said many military experts currently advising the Kremlin were “confident” that NATO would not respond forcefully if Russia attacked Britain. “President Trump will not allow NATO to answer,” he said.
The alliance faces a deepening rift over Russia, as President Trump pursues engagement with Russia and European governments say they must keep up pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
Last month, the U.S. government invited President Putin to the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Miami in December, a move seen as potentially ending Russia’s diplomatic isolation since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The European Union responded that Russia would remain a member of the G20, but said it would continue to condemn the invasion regardless of whether Putin attended.
The rift deepened last week when President Trump announced an agreement that would allow Russian diesel exports to the U.S. and global markets and temporarily ease sanctions on Russian fuel. The administration said the move could lead to lower energy prices and encourage Putin to return to peace talks.
Critics have warned that this would both generate revenue for Russia and undermine Western efforts to rein in Russia’s war effort.
Meanwhile, President Trump also stepped up his criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, suggesting that Ukraine should elect a new leader who is open to a deal with Russia. President Zelenskyy called the diesel car deal between President Trump and President Putin “unfair and dishonest” and claimed it benefits Russia.
EU foreign ministers also insisted that despite the US-Russian agreement, European sanctions against Russia would remain in place.
On Sunday, President Trump claimed in a Truth social post that he had instigated an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, under which both sides would refrain from targeting each other’s energy facilities with long-range attacks. However, President Zelensky said such a deal was “news to me,” but he also said that Ukraine would respect the cease-fire agreement if Russia similarly complied with it. Nevertheless, Russia, which has not agreed to or confirmed an energy ceasefire, continued its attacks on Ukrainian facilities on Monday, according to Ukrainian officials.
