The US midterm elections on November 3 are dominating headlines both domestically and internationally.
The stakes in the election are high. The midterm elections will determine which party controls the U.S. Congress and, in turn, the direction of President Trump’s final two years in office. It will also determine key state and local positions.
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But a landslide victory in the midterm elections may not be enough to shake up the balance of power in Washington, D.C.
To help you understand the impact of this year’s midterm elections and what’s next, Al Jazeera has put together this quick primer.
This is why the US midterm elections are important at the federal level.
Battle of the US House of Representatives and the Senate
Because midterm elections mark the halfway point of a president’s term, the executive branch will not participate in the vote.
The battle for control of Congress will be fought on the front lines. The United States Congress consists of two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The term of office for members of the House of Representatives is two years, so all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election on November 3. But most elections are already considered a formality, and the front-runner is clear.
This leaves only a small number of races (about 50) remaining to determine who wins the House majority.
Although subject to change, nearly all reputable election prognosticators predict that Democrats will win the House majority, some by as much as 15 seats.
However, it is unlikely that Democrats will win a majority in the Senate.
There are only 100 seats in that chamber. However, because senators have staggered six-year terms, only 35 seats are up for election. Only 12 of those races are considered competitive.
Still, Democrats see an increased chance of taking control of the Senate as the number of races increases.
Left-wing candidates are making inroads in red states like Texas and Kansas, increasing Democrats’ chances of winning a Senate majority this election cycle.
With the US vice president severing ties in the Senate, Democrats will need 51 seats to control the chamber.
What does party control mean?
Congress passes laws and approves the federal budget. However, even if a party secures a majority in both houses of Congress, it may not be enough to control the country’s legislative policy.
Legislation can pass in the House with a simple majority, but typically requires a supermajority of 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a process known as the filibuster. This process could allow minorities to delay bills indefinitely unless there is a supermajority.
Therefore, unless a party wins 60 or more seats in the Senate, most legislation will require at least some degree of bipartisan support to pass.
Even if a bill passes both houses of Congress, the president can veto it. A two-thirds supermajority in both houses of Congress is required to override a presidential veto.
It is extremely rare for a bill to garner the broad bipartisan support needed to overcome a presidential veto.
The last time it happened was in January 2021, during President Trump’s first term. At the time, the US president had lost the 2020 election and saw his attempts to veto the defense spending bill erode support from Republican lawmakers.
Still, there have been instances where bipartisan support has overcome presidential opposition. A bill to increase housing supply passed both houses of Congress with veto-proof majorities earlier this year, despite President Trump’s opposition.
So what happens if Republicans retain a majority in Congress?
Republicans currently hold a two-member majority in Congress, with 53 seats in the Senate and 218 in the House.
Mr. Trump’s presence in the White House means that his party has maintained the so-called “trifecta” of government for the past two years, with three levers of power under its command.
The Republican majority in Congress has helped pass some of Trump’s signature legislation, including a surge in funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and cuts to some publicly funded health care costs as part of a sweeping 2025 tax bill.
But the Republican numbers weren’t enough to pass President Trump’s entire legislative wish list. Notably, the federal voter identification law he signed, known as the SAVE America Act, has failed to pass amid opposition from Democrats.
There are also several issues on which Republicans have defied President Trump, particularly regarding tariffs. A small number of Republicans also voted to assert Congressional authority over the U.S.-Israel-Iran war.
If Republicans retain their majorities in both chambers in the November election, they may continue to support Trump’s legislative agenda. However, there are important caveats.
As the 2028 election approaches, lawmakers will be closely monitoring voter sentiment. With Trump unable to seek a third term, some Republicans may be more willing to publicly oppose a lame-duck president over the next two years to improve their electoral prospects.
Even if Republicans retain the Senate majority but lose the House, they could still help President Trump confirm nominees for key federal roles.
Hundreds of federal positions require approval by a simple majority of the Senate, including judicial positions such as Supreme Court justices.
What will happen if the Democratic Party gains power?
With some exceptions, the party that controls Congress can decide which bills are voted on and when.
But for Democrats, the most important outcome of winning a majority in one or both chambers would be blocking the enactment of Mr. Trump’s policies over the next two years.
That said, analysts expect the Democratic-led Congress to take a largely defensive stance and reject Mr. Trump’s proposal.
Even if the party wins a majority in both chambers, it will have a much harder time going on the offensive and passing its own legislative agenda. The Democratic-led bill would still face a veto from President Trump.
But a majority would help Democrats incorporate their policy priorities into “must-pass” funding bills. Fears of a government shutdown could put pressure on Republicans to pass a budget even if they can’t agree on all its terms.
Democrats can also bring issues to a vote, forcing Republicans in Congress to oppose popular policies or simply take public positions on divisive issues.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries laid out a 100-day plan if Democrats control the chamber. Top of the agenda include a vote on health care funding cuts supported by President Trump, asserting Congress’ authority over the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, and rolling back Trump’s tariff program.
These issues have divided the Republican base and could pose thorny dilemmas for lawmakers already preparing for a 2028 vote.
Will Democrats impeach Trump?
As he rallies on behalf of Republicans for a November vote, President Trump has repeatedly expressed concern that Democratic control of Congress could lead to an unforeseen outcome: a third impeachment.
Trump has already been impeached twice during his first term. “If we don’t win, they’re going to end up impeaching me,” he said at a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, in early October.
If Democrats actually take control of the House or Senate, they will take over leadership of dozens of committees. Through these committees, investigations can be initiated on a variety of subjects with subpoena powers.
Some Democrats have already said investigating corruption allegations within the Trump family will be a top priority.
Members of the House can also introduce articles of impeachment and ultimately vote with a simple majority to impeach federal officials, including the president.
However, the Senate must vote by two-thirds to convict the official before removing him from office.
Perhaps more importantly, if Democrats gain a majority in the Senate, they will be able to block the confirmation of Trump’s nominees to key roles during the final two years of his term.
So how will a war with Iran and the economy change?
While Democratic gains are likely to signal dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, we are unlikely to see rapid, concrete changes on many of the issues that defined the election season.
For example, if Democrats hold both majorities in Congress, they will be able to strengthen their ability to address affordability issues by delving into topics such as housing, health care, and the cost of living.
But there is little that can be done to immediately change the myriad of factors that have caused gas and food prices to soar. Any gains, if any, will likely be uphill and slow and gradual.
The same goes for the war between the US, Israel, and Iran.
Under the U.S. Constitution, only Congress can declare war, but Congress has not done so since World War II. Presidents have long used a variety of legal arguments to circumvent that constitutional requirement.
Most recently, the Trump administration argued that a war between the United States and Israel and Iran does not require Congressional approval because the president has a duty to protect the American people.
President Trump also claimed that wars have started and stopped many times, each time renewing the 60-day deadline for Congressional approval.
To reaffirm Congress’ power to declare war, Democrats could pass a legally binding War Powers Resolution to rein in Trump, but would require two-thirds support to override the president’s veto.
Even if the resolution were to overcome a veto, experts say it is unclear how the U.S. judiciary would respond if President Trump overrides the will of Congress.
Still, Democrats could try to use their control of Congress to block war funding.
