In late August, US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of some beef tariffs, making beef imports cheaper, especially from Brazil.
Although the decision was framed as a way to lower prices for consumers, it was a betrayal for many U.S. ranchers who were preparing their cattle for market.
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Although it is too early to tell how this decision will ultimately affect food prices, the impact on ranchers was immediate, with cattle auction prices plummeting and ranchers’ profits temporarily reduced. The American Cattlemen’s Association, National Cattlemen’s Association, and Farm Bureau, affiliate organizations representing ranchers, opposed the decision.
Local Republicans are also distancing themselves, but it’s not yet clear how ranchers will vote in the midterm elections or whether their votes will determine race.
Chad Basinger, a rancher in Pretty Prairie, Kansas, is skeptical that imports will have a significant impact.
“I know there are people who are saying, ‘I’m just going to vote for the other party,’ or ‘I’m not going to vote,’ or ‘I’m really disappointed in this administration.’ So, certainly, there will be some people who will lean in the opposite direction in the midterm elections, but I don’t think there will be that many overall,” Basinger said.
Basinger said ranchers are also considering other measures from the administration, including the $8 billion farm relief package announced in Kansas on Oct. 19.
Mr. Basinger’s Kansas House district is expected to remain safely Republican in the midterm elections. But Kansas faces an unexpectedly close race for the U.S. Senate, and ranchers in other regional U.S. House districts may also be moving closer to political contention. Potential battleground states of Montana, Iowa, Texas and Colorado are all cattle producing states.
Still, ranchers alone are unlikely to decide elections. Ranchers, like farmers more broadly, represent a declining share of the rural electorate, and their voting blocs are actually smaller than the public imagines.
America’s cattle herd is near its smallest size since 1951, and the number of ranches is decreasing along with the number of livestock. Observers fear continued uncertainty from tariffs, fuel prices and drought will further reduce pastoral populations.
David Anderson, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University who advises ranchers, said this year’s higher prices should have given ranchers confidence to invest in the future and expand their herds. But lowering the price of imported goods may have helped steer ranchers in the opposite direction.
“This is very counterproductive to the market signals for more domestic production and more production,” Anderson said. “That made a lot of people pretty angry.”
Tariff changes increase volatility
This isn’t the first time President Trump’s tariffs have affected cattle supplies. Last year, the president added a 50% tariff on Brazil, a major beef trading partner, raising the cost of importing Brazilian lean beef. Beef is often mixed with fatty American beef to create the classic hamburger patty in many households.
In February, President Trump allowed more tariff-free imports of beef from Argentina. It did the same for Brazil and Paraguay in August.
Both tariff changes led to rapid price fluctuations in the cattle futures market, and the market was often volatile in response to news cycles.
Cattle prices have fluctuated this year in response to more fundamental factors in supply and demand, including plant closures by meatpackers, labor shortages late last month related to ICE measures at the nation’s second-largest Kansas packing plant, and the reopening of the southern border after a New World screwworm shutdown.
Overall, shrinking U.S. cattle herds have less to do with short-term price fluctuations and more to do with drought cycles that intensify as warmer temperatures increase evaporation.
Still, tariff changes increase uncertainty. “This has been a big topic for the last six weeks,” Anderson said. “It just adds a little bit more uncertainty or volatility or worry or stress.”
Prices have been volatile this year as many ranchers prepared to sell, leaving ranchers facing reduced profits and increased risk.
Basinger said that for many established ranchers, the tariff announcements were frustrating but not an existential threat.
“People are upset. They have a right to be upset. But they’re not going to change their strategy,” he said. Basinger said that for most ranchers, import volume will not be the biggest factor in deciding about their herds this year.
Basinger said it’s in the next generation that price fluctuations could become more significant. Most ranchers today are looking to retire. Their heirs must decide whether to continue ranching or sell the family land. Other ambitious ranchers are also eyeing the industry.
“When you see your dad not making money, or seeing other people not making money…that’s not an easy job!” Basinger said. “It must be very appealing for someone to want to jump in and be like, ‘I’m going to be a rancher and go break the ice in the middle of winter when it’s so cold that I might be able to go inside.'”
Record revenue and costs
This year, a shortage of U.S. cattle has caused ranchers to send cattle prices to record highs despite increased imports and other market changes.
However, high returns do not necessarily mean huge profits. Many ranchers operate in the red for years in a row. And they rely on the years to pay off debts or expand their herds.
Ranchers also faced higher costs this year, so profits were lower than expected.
Loan interest rates were high, and the war with Iran meant ranchers paid extra for fuel and fertilizer. Drought has hit much of America’s ranches, making feed costs even higher.
As ranchers faced devastating wildfires in states like Kansas and Nebraska, aid groups like Farm Rescue coordinated hay donations.
Still, Basinger said ranchers who raise cows and calves have generally fared well this year. Kansas is seeing ranchers using their profits to make repairs and upgrades. He said higher cattle prices this year have helped. “But we need to support them a little longer to give them an extra edge,” he said.
Increased dominance can mean enough funds to make bigger purchases, for example, buying land from neighboring ranches to make room for a growing herd.
But Rangeland prices are getting higher and higher. When put up for sale, outside investors are often able to pay more than the rancher, which may leave them with less land for their cattle. This is just more pressure that has been shrinking the U.S. herd for decades.
Ranchers were hoping 2026 would be a year of improvement. But so far, “there’s not much evidence that the herd has expanded,” Anderson said.
