NEW DELHI, India — Standing next to U.S. President Donald Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi heaped praise after praise.
Speaking at a joint rally of more than 50,000 Indian-Americans at a stadium in Houston, Texas, he said Trump was “the same every time we met: warm, friendly, approachable, energetic, resourceful.”
It happened in 2019, just before the 2020 US presidential vote, when Trump was facing a major electoral test as he sought re-election to a second term. Mr. Modi was effectively rallying support for himself among the Indian-American community, the richest diaspora in the United States.
PM Modi even borrowed a line from his own successful election campaign and said, “Abki Baar, Trump Sarkar!” (Hindi for “This time it’s the Trump administration”).
But Trump lost.
Seven years later, as President Trump loses significant seats in the U.S. Congress and prepares for difficult midterm elections that could disrupt his legislative agenda, New Delhi’s relationship with Washington is more unchanged than ever.
Far from supporting President Trump, Indian officials have been more outspoken in criticizing the Trump administration in recent weeks amid a series of setbacks in bilateral relations. And many analysts believe that the Modi government may actually want a Trump president who is now being chastised for medium-term losses.
rub one’s nerves
India has long enjoyed bipartisan support in Washington. But traditionally, New Delhi’s strategic community has often felt secure with a Republican president in power.
It was under President Ronald Reagan that the Cold War ended and India and the United States mended ties after decades of mistrust amid strong ties between New Delhi and Moscow. India and the United States then signed a landmark civil nuclear agreement between 2006 and 2008 under the George W. Bush administration. India was granted access to the world’s nuclear technology and fuel despite not being a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Under the Bush administration, India and the United States also signed major military agreements, including refueling American ships and aircraft and allowing logistics access to Indian bases.
In New Delhi, by contrast, the Democratic administration in the United States often views India’s human rights record more critically.
The tradition of friendly relations with the US Republican president is likely to continue under the Trump administration, with the US leader clearly showing goodwill with Mr Modi. The Indian Prime Minister even called President Trump “India’s best friend in the White House.”
But from India’s perspective, Trump 2.0 is very different.
So different that New Delhi chose to break with long-standing convention. India usually deals with conflicts with friendly countries quietly behind the scenes. But months of tension over a range of issues have led India to become more openly critical of the White House.
India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar spoke at an event in New York last month and shared a sharp and frank assessment of the Trump administration. Friendship with Pakistan, its biggest rival, has deepened. And it has pursued “selfish” trade policies that have disproportionately harmed the Global South.
“Nations should not be so self-centered that they lock themselves in their own worlds and make their own decisions and say, ‘Well, it wasn’t my intention to make your life difficult,'” he says.
One of the biggest points of contention between the two countries is an elusive trade deal that could bring relief to India, one of the countries hardest hit under President Trump’s tariff regime.
Earlier this month, India’s finance minister and corporate affairs minister Nirmala Sitharaman said negotiations had “reached a stalemate beyond which give-and-take could become very difficult.”
President Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) campaign also frequently targets Indians and Indian-Americans, using racist metaphors and accusing them of “stealing” jobs in the United States through programs such as the H-1B visa system. Anti-Indian rhetoric on social media in the United States is at an all-time high. And at the beginning of his second term, Trump sent many illegal Indian immigrants back to their home countries in chains. The scene sparked outrage in India.
Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, said the Indian government “can tolerate real policy differences with the U.S. government.” However, “the attacks against India and Indian Americans by the current administration and many of its allies in the media and on social media have been unnerving,” he said.
Vaishnav, like other analysts, told Al Jazeera that despite recent criticism from New Delhi, “the Modi government has shown admirable restraint in its response.”
“I regained my sense of distrust.”
Since Trump returned to office in 2025, U.S.-India relations have been plagued by a series of seemingly endless crises.
US punitive tariffs and stalled trade negotiations. The US government has put pressure on India to stop purchasing Russian crude oil. President Trump has repeatedly claimed that he brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan in 2025, a claim that New Delhi rejects. Relations between the US and Pakistan grow closer despite concerns about India’s “terrorism.” Rising fees for H-1B specialized worker visas in the US and President Trump’s broader immigration crackdown impacting workers in India.
At one point, India was among the countries facing the worst tariffs imposed by President Trump. After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on numerous countries in February, the Trump administration quickly turned to other measures, including a new 10% global tariff.
Last month, President Trump signed legislation that allows the United States to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries such as India that buy Russian crude oil. But he halted it to avoid a spike in U.S. energy prices ahead of November’s midterm elections and to get negotiations with Russia on track over the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.
“None of these tariffs punish or harm India,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who visited India’s financial capital but not the capital, said in an interview with The Indian Express this week.
Rubio argued that Washington’s “broad foreign policy unfortunately includes the war that is going on between Russia and Ukraine,” adding, “Part of the reason[President Trump suspended tariffs]is because he understands that it would have a very negative impact on our very important relationship with India.”
But Rubio did not rule out the possibility that similar measures could be reinstated in the matter of time. “I think the president is trying hard to strike that balance…but it’s going to be difficult,” he said.
Praveen Donti, a senior analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera: “Under Trump 2.0, bipartisan consensus on India appears to have ended in Washington.
“The sentiment[in Washington]seems too strong to be attributed to President Trump alone. It’s indicative of the broader American establishment,” Donty said.
Referring to Cold War-era tensions, he said the steps taken by the Trump administration have “restored mistrust of the United States among India’s strategic establishment.”
Can defeat in the mid-terms defeat Trump?
The upcoming US midterm elections are extremely important for Mr. Trump. If he loses control of Congress during the final two years of his term, it would give Democrats more power to scrutinize his administration’s policies.
President Trump is facing the worst approval ratings of his career as gasoline prices in the United States reach record highs due to the global energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel war against Iran that began in February.
“A chastened Trump will be in India’s interests,” said Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment.
“There are many Democrats on Capitol Hill, not to mention Republicans, who are outraged by the current administration’s handling of the U.S.-India relationship,” he said. “They may be critical of India’s politics, economy, and foreign policy, but they truly believe in the logic of a strong partnership between the United States and India.”
A Democratic-controlled Congress could have a “moderate influence” on U.S. foreign policy, he said.
But Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based South Asia analyst, said he doubted Trump’s foreign policy would be affected by the election results, “at least not when it comes to India.”
Kugelman noted that Trump is entering the final days of his presidency, that he cannot legally run for a third term, and that on the issue of New Delhi, “we will continue to pursue the policies that we believe will best advance the economic interests of the United States.”
“If he thinks that might involve the threat of additional tariffs on India, he will do that.”
Crisis Group’s Donti told Al Jazeera that New Delhi hopes bilateral relations will improve after Trump leaves office, and that “[Washington]can take a more patient and strategic approach.”
But on the other hand, “there seems to be broad consensus (among pro-Trump Republicans) about the need to put pressure on India,” adding that Trump’s weakening will not necessarily bring relief to India.
For New Delhi, the landscape marks a dramatic change from just a few years ago.
Two years ago, days after Mr. Trump won the 2024 elections, Foreign Minister Jaishankar said with a big smile on his face: “Many countries today are nervous about the United States, but to be honest, we (India) are not one of them.”
Today, that smile is gone.
