Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei speaks during the keynote address at Salesforce’s Dreamforce conference at Moscone Center on September 15, 2026 in San Francisco, California.
Benjamin Fanjoy | Getty Images
as human The Nasdaq market capitalization could reach $2 trillion, but one research firm values the artificial intelligence company at just $150 billion, saying Wall Street is about to face an “unprecedented test of investor gullibility.”
Independent financial research firm New Construct called Anthropic’s upcoming offer “the most ridiculous IPO of 2026” in a report Tuesday.
The company estimates that Anthropic would need to post twice the year-ago profit of Nvidia, the world’s most valuable technology company, to reach its desired valuation. Over the past four quarters, Nvidia’s net income has exceeded $190 billion. Meanwhile, Anthropic’s 2025 revenue was $4.6 billion, with a net loss of $42 billion, according to Reuters, which cited a leaked copy of the prospectus.
Anthropic’s increasing operating losses, coupled with increased competition from numerous open source models, led New Constructs to conclude that “we do not believe Anthropic has a viable business.”
“Since the advent of open source models, it has been clear that closed models will struggle to generate profits,” the company wrote.
New Constructs founder and CEO David Trainer has built a reputation on Wall Street as a notorious IPO underdog. He was right in the past.
New Constructs called WeWork “the most ridiculous IPO of 2019” ahead of the office-sharing company’s planned initial public offering. WeWork was privately valued at $47 billion, but just six weeks after New Construct’s report, the company called off its IPO amid weak demand and heavy criticism over its financials. WeWork filed for bankruptcy in 2023.
“At a $2 trillion valuation, Anthropic has historically done more for society than WeWork, but its IPO carries far greater risks and stands to take far more from the U.S. capital markets,” New Construct wrote, adding that the IPO’s purpose was not to provide wealth to public market investors, but rather to provide liquidity to the company’s Wall Street backers.
Anthropic did not respond to a request for comment.
New Constructs was also bearish on the 2021 Allbirds IPO. The shoe company went public on the Nasdaq, reaching a valuation of $4.1 billion on its first day. Earlier this year, the company sold assets to American Exchange Group for an estimated $39 million, pivoting to AI in the process.
The trainer’s company also failed to respond to calls on the phone. The company named DoorDash the “most ridiculous” IPO of 2020. The company also compared DoorDash to WeWork, saying the food delivery company is “similarly disadvantaged.”
But DoorDash has held up well in the public market. The stock price soared on the first day of December 2020, and the company’s market capitalization exceeded $60 billion. That number has since ballooned to $83 billion.
In a 2021 interview with CNBC, Trainor acknowledged that “crazy things happen” and that New Constructs isn’t always right.
“I can’t worry about that,” he said at the time. “I have to stay true to what I think is right.”
Anthropic has not yet published a prospectus, so New Constructs has not seen the actual filing. But the company cited reported figures, including in the New York Times, which reported in September that the company was on pace to generate $100 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2026.
Anthropic announced at the end of July that its annual revenue run rate had increased seven times over the previous year to $65 billion.
The New Constructs report also points to Anthropic’s claims that AI could pose “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity” as another reason investors should avoid the IPO.
“While we were not fortunate enough to be one of the few companies whose S-1s were selectively disclosed, the leaked financial reports reveal more than enough to assess the enormous risks of investing in this IPO,” New Construct wrote.
WATCH: TechCheck: Is Anthropic’s IPO imminent?
