U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One en route from Shannon, Ireland to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on January 22, 2026.
Mandel Gunn | AFP | Getty Images
Concerns about possible military action in the Middle East have deepened following US President Donald Trump’s warning that a US “armada” is headed for Iran, and oil prices have risen on fears of supply disruptions.
“We’re watching Iran,” President Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Thursday. “You know, we have a bunch of ships headed that way just in case. We have a large convoy heading that way and we’ll see what happens.”
The US president also reiterated his call for Tehran not to restart its nuclear program, repeating comments he made to CNBC at the World Economic Forum earlier in the week.
Crude oil prices were trading higher on Friday morning, after falling about 2% in the previous session.
international benchmark brent Crude oil futures for March delivery rose 1.1% to $64.77 per barrel at around 10:13 a.m. London time (5:13 a.m. ET). us west texas intermediate Meanwhile, futures prices for March delivery rose 1.2% to $60.06.
Trump’s comments come as the death toll in Iran’s nationwide crackdown on protests has reached at least 5,002 people and nearly 27,000 people have been arrested, according to Human Rights Defenders News Agency. HRANA, a U.S.-registered nonprofit organization, relies on a network of activists inside Iran for reporting.
The demonstrations, which began in Tehran’s bazaar on December 28, were spurred by growing dissatisfaction with the government’s response to the long-running economic crisis, particularly the plummeting national currency and soaring prices.
A woman paints her face with the colors of the Iranian flag during a protest in front of the Spanish Parliament.
Marcos Del Mazo | Light Rocket | Getty Images
President Trump appeared to back away from threatening military action against Iran last week, telling reporters he had been informed by a “very sensitive source” in Tehran that “the killings have stopped.”
However, the US president’s recent warnings against Iran and the US naval buildup in the Gulf region have energy market participants on edge. Iran, a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market, producing more than 3 million barrels of oil per day.
Iran’s “only saving grace”
Aditya Saraswat, MENA research director at Rystad Energy, said in a research note that there are three possible scenarios for Iranian oil inflows: maintaining the status quo, progressing negotiations with the Trump administration, or preparing for regime change triggered by US intervention.
“Iran’s familiar tactics, such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz, relying on trade with China, and threatening nuclear escalation, remain on the table, but Iran itself needs to consider the possibility that it could backfire on the regime,” Saraswat said on Monday.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.
Iranian navy soldiers board an armed speedboat in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, about 800 miles south of Tehran, on April 30, 2019.
Morteza Nicobazul | Nur Photo | Getty Images
If waterways were blocked, even temporarily, global energy prices could rise sharply, raising transportation costs and causing significant delays in supply.
Saraswat said the “only saving factor” for Iran is China’s role as a major driver of export earnings.
“As it stands, China accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, and even some cargoes reserved for ‘unknown’ destinations end up in China. While the current export model seems viable in the short term, its sustainability is becoming more conditional,” it added.
A “well-supplied” market
Energy analysts told CNBC last week that the U.S. strike is unlikely to have a significant impact on Iranian oil production, with market participants bracing for further price volatility due to rising geopolitical tensions.
Analysts at Fitch Ratings said on January 16: “A significant disruption to Iranian oil production would push prices higher, but the impact would still be limited given the global market oversupply.”
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi oil company Aramco, also said in an interview with CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Wednesday that the energy sector is “very resilient in terms of dealing with any fluctuations that may occur.”
In response to a question about the risk of disruption to Iranian oil supplies, Nasser said the market was “well supplied.”
“If you look at the past 10 years and how much disruption there has been, the market continues to be well-supplied because the sources of supply are also dispersed,” he added.
