The hurdles for action against Iran based on NATO Article 5 are high

This photo shows debris from a NATO air defense system that intercepted a missile from Iran heading towards Turkey earlier this week, as members of the military alliance feel the heat of war in the Middle East.

Iran has attacked multiple countries in response to US and Israeli attacks against Iran. It hit the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Its northern neighbor Azerbaijan said Thursday that an Iranian drone had injured two civilians.

The damage caused by a drone that targeted a Royal Air Force base in Cyprus this week has been repeated further afield, with Turkey announcing on Wednesday that its NATO air and missile defense systems had shot down a missile heading for its airspace. Both countries are NATO members and have an obligation under Article 5 of the treaty to unite to protect member states under attack.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who visited North Macedonia on Tuesday before Turkey claimed to have shot down an Iranian missile, called Iran an “exporter of chaos” that poses a “widespread” danger. But it added that the alliance would collectively “defend every inch of NATO territory” if necessary.

However, experts point out that the hurdles for a military alliance to respond remain high.

Iran has denied firing missiles at Türkiye but has not responded to drones targeting British bases in Cyprus. Britain’s Ministry of Defense said on Wednesday that Iran’s signature Shahed-type drones, which it manufactures and exports to its ally Russia, are “not launched from Iran.” CNBC has reached out to Iran’s Foreign Ministry for further comment.

After the drone attack, Euronews reported that NATO was not holding talks on it, considering it too minor to merit consultation. CNBC has reached out to NATO for comment.

Analysts say the incident shows the war could spread and affect the alliance.

Hamish Kinnear, a senior analyst at Middle East and North Africa risk analyst Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC that the attacks on Turkey and British air bases reflected “Iran’s desire to expand, viewing it as an existential war.”

He said it was unclear whether Iran was intentionally targeting Turkey, but the incident further raised the risk of an escalation of regional war. He said if Tehran decides to target Turkey more aggressively, it would likely attack U.S. military bases and energy infrastructure “reflecting Iranian tactics in the Persian Gulf.”

Kinnear said Turkey does not want to get drawn into a war with Iran, but would likely consider “direct retaliation” if Iran began explicitly targeting Turkey.

NATO members are already fighting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the alliance’s eastern flank. European Union member states have depleted their stockpiles with aid to Ukraine, and efforts to replenish them have been slow, while pledges to increase defense spending are facing obstacles.

In September, the alliance launched Operation Eastern Sentry to strengthen air defenses after Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Although Article 5 was not triggered, the Alliance said its commitment to the principle was “ironclad” and added: “We will continue to respond in the manner, timing and areas of our choosing.”

Guntram Wolff, a senior research fellow at Bruegel University, told CNBC on Thursday that “it would be a bit of an exaggeration to invoke Article 5 because one missile was shot down.”

“Militarily, I actually think that Iran will be less capable of transmitting missiles and drones, but that’s not completely ruled out. But the scenario that I’m really concerned about is more of a prolonged period of instability within itself that has implications for regional stability,” he told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition.”

“There will always be new waves of different forces, like in Yemen, where the Houthis are firing rockets at ships from time to time. This kind of instability would be very bad for the entire region.”