A Toyota Motor Corporation vehicle is shipped to Nagoya Port in Tokai City, Aichi Prefecture on Tuesday, April 29, 2025.
Toru Hanai | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Detroit — toyota motorsAccording to Bernstein’s analysis, Chinese automakers such as Hyundai and Chery could be most affected by the potential impact of a U.S.-Israel-Iran war on non-domestic automakers.
According to the report, these international automakers account for about a third of sales in the Middle East, with Toyota accounting for 17%. hyundai at 10%, and Chery At 5%. Specifically, in Iran, Bernstein reports that Iranian automakers Iran Khodro and SAIPA are leading the pack, followed by Chery with a 6% market share.
Other Chinese automakers are also expected to be affected, as the Middle East is a growing export destination for Chinese cars. Citing Chinese export data, Bernstein said the region will account for about 17% of China’s passenger car exports in 2025.
Bernstein’s report notes that while sales in the region will be affected, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Indian Ocean, and rising oil prices will have a ripple effect across the global auto industry.
“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will increase transit times by 10-14 days,” Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee said in a note to investors on Wednesday, adding, “Prolonged conflict and closure of the Strait will negatively impact sales, increase logistics costs and delay deliveries.”
About 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait every day, according to consulting firm AlixPartners. Bernstein noted that it is also an “important corridor” for shipping vehicles and parts to the Middle East.
Bernstein said the impact on Japanese automakers “seems to be limited for now, but we need to closely monitor future developments.” The paper also talked about European automakers, including the parent company of Chrysler and Jeep. Stellantis “Given the overall issue, we believe it has the greatest exposure.”
“The impact of rising gas pump prices is already visible in the 11% decline in Stellantis’ stock price since the close of trading last Friday. The sudden pivot to gas-guzzling HEMI V8 engines and the halting of electrification efforts seems particularly ill-timed at this point,” Lee wrote.
U.S. crude oil prices topped $90 a barrel on Friday, and U.S. retail gasoline prices rose nearly 27 cents in the past week through Thursday to an average of $3.25 a gallon, according to auto industry group AAA.
Stellantis said this week that it is “closely monitoring developments across the affected countries,” noting that “it is not yet possible to fully assess the potential impact on local operations.”
Toyota said in an emailed statement that it “does not have any operations in Iran and does not have employees located in Iran.” “We are closely monitoring the situation and the safety of our local employees and associates in the Middle East is our top priority,” the company said in a statement.
Hyundai and Chery did not respond to requests for comment.
