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The average tax refund so far this season is up 10.8% compared to about the same time in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data.
As of March 13, the average refund for individual filers was $3,623, up from $3,271 about a year ago, the IRS reported Friday.
The IRS data reflects about 69.7 million individual returns, out of about 164 million expected by the April 15 deadline.
The latest filing data comes as both parties focus on affordability concerns for Americans ahead of the midterm elections.
President Donald Trump said this year will be the “biggest tax refund season in history” due to the 2025 amendment enacted by his “big, beautiful bill.”
Meanwhile, many Americans are facing rising gasoline prices amid the Iran war. The national average gasoline price reached $3.91 per gallon on Friday, up from about $2.93 per gallon a month ago, according to AAA.
Higher gas prices could offset increased tax refunds starting this season, according to an analysis released this week by a Stanford University economics professor.
“The energy shock is going to hit the people with the least cushion…and I don’t think these tax refunds are going to help them,” Alex Jacques, director of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, a left-leaning economic policy think tank, told a news conference on Friday.
Change in average tax refund
The average refund amount this season peaked at $3,804 on Feb. 20, up from $3,453 about a year ago, but has gradually declined over the past three weeks of IRS filing updates.
Increases in mid-February are common when refunds, including the earned income tax credit or the refundable portion of the child tax credit called the additional child tax credit (ACTC), start appearing in payments.
The White House said in early January that average refunds could increase by “more than $1,000,” but payments have declined so far this season.
Tom Oseven, director of tax content and government relations for the National Association of Tax Professionals, told CNBC that he has filed about 200 returns so far this season.
Those who received refunds saw a difference of a few hundred dollars compared to last year, he said.
But experts say your tax refund or outstanding balance will depend on several factors, including which President Trump tax cuts affect your situation and how much you paid in 2025 through payroll deductions.
