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The average tax refund so far this season is up 11.1% compared to about the same time in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data.
The average refund for individual filers as of April 3 was $3,462, up from $3,116 about a year ago, the IRS said Friday.
The IRS data reflects about 99.8 million individual tax returns received, out of about 164 million expected by the April 15 deadline.
Many filers are receiving larger tax refunds this season thanks to the 2025 changes enacted by President Donald Trump’s “Big and Beautiful Bill.”
As average refunds rise, Republicans point to Trump’s signature policies, including new deductions for tip income, overtime pay, seniors and auto loan interest. But some analysts say higher gasoline prices during the Iran war could offset that windfall.
Both parties are focusing on affordability ahead of November’s midterm elections, as many Americans struggle with rising costs of gas, electricity, food and other living costs.
Nearly a quarter, or 23%, of filers who expect a refund will use the money to pay down credit card debt, and an equal amount will save on payments, according to a quarterly financial survey of 3,494 U.S. adults as of the end of March released by CNBC and SurveyMonkey in April.
How is the average refund amount likely to change in the future?
Despite President Trump’s changes to the law, the average refund pattern is consistent with previous years, with the largest payments reported in late February and refunds tapering off before tax day.
The average taxpayer could receive more than $1,000 in additional benefits, the White House said in a Jan. 26 announcement, citing data from investment bank Piper Sandler from early October. But the average tax refund has been decreasing, with year-over-year payments increasing by about $350 over the past few updates, according to IRS data.
This average could change further with two more IRS updates before the April 15 tax deadline.
“It appears that people who earned tips and overtime were incentivized to file early in hopes of getting a larger refund,” Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank, said at a news conference Thursday.
According to a March poll of 1,200 Americans conducted by the Bipartisan Policy Center, about 81% of those who receive tips or overtime income are likely to file in January or February.
If this is a broader trend, the average refund could be lower by April 15 than it was earlier in the filing season, Lautz said.
Alternatively, last-minute filers who claim the federal deduction limit for state and local taxes, known as SALT, could raise the average amount they pay, Lautz said. President Trump’s 2025 bill would increase the SALT limit from $10,000 to $40,000 and potentially provide higher payments to eligible filers who itemize their tax deductions.
