Tariff refunds are unlikely to benefit consumers: CNBC CFO Council study

Even if the Supreme Court struck down most of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, with a judge later ordering the government to prepare to pay billions of dollars in refunds to importers who paid the tariffs, consumers shouldn’t expect their money back.

That’s according to the CNBC CFO Council’s latest quarterly survey, in which 12 out of 25 chief financial officers said they planned to apply for tax refunds, but none intended to share the money directly with customers.

Six of those surveyed said they had no plans to pass on any part of the customs duty refunds they might receive, seven were unsure, and 12 answered “not applicable.”

Ten executives believe it could take more than a year to repay their debt, and only three CFOs expect to repay it this year. The other 12 CFOs said they had no plans to apply for customs duty refunds.

The CFO Council survey samples opinions from chief financial officers of large organizations across sectors of the U.S. economy. CFO Council members conducted the survey from March 23rd to April 2nd.

Meanwhile, the legal battle over President Trump’s tariffs is far from over. On the same day that the Supreme Court ruled in February that “reciprocal tariffs” were illegal, President Trump announced a new 10% “world tariff” rate for 150 days under another law, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. He then said he would raise global tariffs to 15%.

Customs duties are taxes on foreign imports and are paid by the U.S. corporation that imports the product. Companies often absorb some of the costs and pass the rest on to consumers through higher prices. Tariffs thus have an overall inflationary effect on the economy, economists say.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, said the CNBC CFO Council’s findings were “not surprising” even if companies received refunds.

“They’re going to withhold them (refunds),” Zandi said, adding that CFOs may think “this is just compensation” given the heavy burden on U.S. companies, including rising costs and supply chain adjustments to reduce tariffs.

He added that the Trump administration could pressure companies to pass on those savings, but “that would be very difficult.”

The President floated the idea of ​​putting some of the tariff revenue directly into the hands of Americans in the form of tariff dividend checks. However, such a broad benefit program would require legislation passed by Congress.

Both Democrats and Republicans are trying to capitalize on President Trump’s tariff policies in the run-up to the 2026 midterm elections. Several tariff refund bills have been submitted to Congress, but none have been approved yet.

Last year, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) introduced the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025, which proposed an economic stimulus package funded by tariff revenue. The Senate referred the bill to the Finance Committee, where it remains.

In March, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D.M.) introduced another bill that would create a new tax rebate for people who suffered from rising prices on everyday goods under the now-defunct tariff system. Heinrich’s bill, called the Tariff Refunds for Working Families Act, would use the $166 billion raised by tariffs to fund new rebates.

The bill has also been referred to the Finance Committee.

Other initiatives are being considered in House committees, including the Trump Tariff Rebate Act, introduced by Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Texas), and the U.S. Consumer Tariff Rebate Act of 2026, introduced by Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas).

“The chances of a tariff refund passing Congress still seem remote,” said Stephen Cates, a certified financial planner and financial analyst at Bankrate.

“The bill supported by Republicans is an admission that the tariffs were a policy mistake, even if sending checks was initially popular,” he said. “Tariffs and rising gas prices are widely associated with Republicans, so Democrats have little incentive to support such measures ahead of the midterm elections.”

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