Bernstein predicts market will grow to $1 trillion by 2030

Prediction market trading volume will skyrocket in 2026, increasing more than fourfold this year alone and reaching an estimated $1 trillion over the next four years, Bernstein said.

The investment bank wrote in a report on Tuesday that trading volume has already surged in the first few months of this year, with Calci and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, expected to generate about $60 billion in market trading volume year-to-date, which is higher than the projected total market trading volume of $51 billion for all of 2025.

Bank of America says the platform’s growth rate is comparable to the artificial intelligence boom. In a note last week, analyst Julie Hoover described Calci as one of the “fastest growing non-AI companies” in the U.S. and wrote that Calci’s weekly trading volume, which controls more than 90% of the U.S. prediction market, has soared from about $100 million a year ago to more than $3 billion now.

Prediction market volume initially spiked in 2024 around the US presidential election, but eventually surpassed that level in 2025 as sports, cryptocurrencies, and macroeconomic contracts grew in popularity.

$1 trillion by 2030

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chughani now predicts the market will reach $240 billion in 2026, an increase of 370% from last year. Chugani estimates that the average annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030 will be around 80%, and that the market will reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by the beginning of the next decade.

Chugani expects regulatory clarity at the federal level to boost the potential market, and predicts that blockchain tokenization and integration with cryptocurrencies will enable increased liquidity. He said the mix of contracts being traded is also likely to change.

“We expect the institutional market to evolve around economic, business and political contracts as investors seek more direct and personalized exposure to events,” he said. Sports contracts currently account for more than 60% of transaction volume, but he expects that to halve by 2030. “We also expect to hedge demand from companies (and) insurance companies that are exposed to certain event risks.”

While Kalsi and Polymarket dominate the field, new names are also building a presence. robin hood, draft kings Bank of America’s Mr. Hoover said both his company and Underdog are launching or have already launched their own prediction market areas.

public proxy

with robin hood coinbase global Chugani said these companies are the main public market agents for private prediction market companies. Robinhood’s prediction market hub is a year old and generates $350 million in annual recurring revenue and accounts for approximately 30% of Calsi’s total trading volume. Analysts said the marketplace is the fastest growing business among digital financial platforms and could prompt Robinhood to develop its own exchange.

While Chugani’s long-term estimates are premised on the resolution of long-term regulatory risks, in the short term state and federal regulators and the prediction markets themselves are in a fierce battle. “Legal actions are currently pending in 14 states, as well as four additional Congressional bills amid concerns over insider trading,” Huber wrote.

While some states have filed lawsuits against prediction markets over their authority to regulate sports betting, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is fighting the states, arguing that it has the sole authority to regulate prediction markets.

Still, Chugani believes this will not derail the multi-year outlook.

He said, “Despite continued state-level legal challenges, we expect platforms such as Calci, Polymarket, and Public Agents (HOOD, COIN) to benefit from increased regulatory clarity and increased collaboration with federal regulators (SEC, CFTC). This is an important driver of market legitimacy and mainstream adoption.”

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment in CNBC.

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