A view showing an oil pump jack on the outskirts of Almetyevsk, Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023.
Alexander Manjuk | Reuters
Oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump said the Iran war “should be over soon,” but boosted hopes that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon would ease supply disruptions.
usa crude oil Futures for May delivery fell 1.44% to $93.33 per barrel. international benchmark brent Oil for June delivery fell 1.29% to $98.1 per barrel.
“The Iran war is well underway,” President Trump said Thursday, repeating his rosy predictions about an end to the war that began on February 28.
Hours earlier, President Trump said in a post on Truth Social that a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. Eastern time.
He added that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun have been invited to the White House, marking the first meaningful talks between the two countries since 1983.
The US State Department said both sides aim to create conditions for lasting peace, including mutual recognition of sovereignty. The ministry said the initiative includes improving border security and reaffirming Israel’s right to self-defense.
They also noted their shared concern that non-state armed groups undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty.
President Trump said he expected Lebanon to “look out for the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah.” This development raised hopes for a broader solution to the Middle East conflict.
ING said oil prices were falling on hopes that the United States and Iran could extend the ceasefire for another two weeks and resume talks to end the conflict.
“However, the physical market is getting tighter by the day as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have not resumed,” ING analysts said in a note.
Even taking into account pipeline rerouting and restrictions on tanker movement, ING estimates that around 13 million barrels per day of supply has been disrupted, a figure that could rise further under the U.S. lockdown.
“The key upside risk to the market is that the US-Iranian peace talks break down. This is not an unrealistic scenario given that US and Iranian demands remain far apart.”
