A Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) drone is stationed on the tarmac of a base in the U.S. Central Command area of operations.
Source: U.S. Centcom
The future of airpower lies in autonomous platforms, and the United States, despite having the world’s largest air force, may not be able to lead the charge.
Matt George, CEO of self-driving aircraft developer Merlin Labs, said:
Speaking with CNBC’s Morgan Brennan on CNBC’s CONVERGE LIVE event, George said small and medium-sized autonomous platforms are dominating the wars in Iran and Ukraine.
Autonomous platforms include unmanned drones used for reconnaissance or carrying payloads to directly attack military targets. These drones are significantly cheaper and faster to deploy than conventional weapons, prompting Western militaries to reconsider their spending priorities.
“I think the United States has realized that we’re not necessarily behind, but we don’t have a decisive lead. We need to build on these capabilities and invest in them,” George said.
He added: “We now know that drones are being used in this conflict in Iran… Similar to Ukraine, this is the first conflict to become a drone-led war.”
Kiev used Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 drones in the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war, and Russia also used Iranian-made Shahed 136 drones and its own Lancet drones in attacks on Ukraine.
In the Middle East, Iran also used Shahid drones in retaliation against Gulf states after the US and Israel carried out airstrikes on Iran in February.
“We’ve talked about all of this very high-end stuff in the United States, but… we’ve also seen that large manned platforms are still very vulnerable. We’ve seen large aircraft endangered by adversaries that use much cheaper munitions and other forms of electronic warfare,” George said.
In June 2025, Ukrainian security services launched a large-scale drone attack against Russian air force facilities using drones hidden in trucks, reportedly damaging more than 40 aircraft.
Iran has also used drones to attack U.S. military aircraft in Saudi Arabia, as well as air-to-air refueling tankers and early warning aircraft.
cost disparity
The cost disparity between competing autonomous flying platforms and expensive air defense interceptors is becoming more pronounced.
In the wake of the 2022 Ukraine war, a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies said, “Shooting a $4 million missile at a $250,000 Russian cruise missile may be justified if those missiles hit sensitive targets. Shooting a $4 million missile at a $50,000 Iranian Shahed-136 drone is probably not justified.”
The PAC-3 interceptor missile used as part of the U.S.-made Patriot air defense system costs about $4 million, according to CSIS.
This disparity was seen again during the Iran war, when reports surfaced that U.S. stocks of interceptor weapons in the Gulf were critically low amid Iranian drone attacks.
“Russia and Iran don’t need every drone to hit a target, just keep sending waves of drones until the other side runs out of expensive missiles to fire back at,” Aaron Brynildson, a law lecturer at the University of Mississippi, wrote in an April 23 article in The Conversation.
George said Western countries are now seeing a “serious refocus” on investing in autonomous technology. He pointed out that the US defense budget allocates $75 billion for autonomous platforms and drones.
The Pentagon’s budget request for the Defense Autonomous Working Group (DAWG) has reportedly jumped from just $225.9 million this year to $54.6 billion.
However, George believes that in addition to the huge budget, the US military needs to consider the speed with which such a platform can be realized.
The Air Force needs to deliver these capabilities “in weeks and months, not years, which is our traditional approach,” he said.
