Bitcoin Cryptoquant, a cryptocurrency data provider, says that although it spiked in April, the trend may be volatile.
The flagship cryptocurrency rose 12.7% in the month, marking consecutive monthly gains and its best month since April 2025. After five consecutive months of decline, it rose nearly 2% in March. ether It increased by 8% over the same period, which was also the second consecutive month of increase and the best month since August.
However, CryptoQuant said perpetual futures, a major source of leveraged crypto trading activity, were “the only driver” of the rally. The company’s apparent demand measure, which tracks 30-day changes in Bitcoin outright purchases, remained negative throughout April even as futures demand increased.
According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, the combination of these two trends is often a red flag. They suggest that price increases are driven by speculation rather than fundamentals.
“This divergence (increasing futures demand in parallel with a contraction in spot demand) suggests that the price increase is being driven by leverage rather than fresh coin accumulation,” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said in a report on Thursday. “Historically, such configurations have lacked the structural underpinnings needed to sustain price appreciation and typically resolve with corrections as futures positions loosen.”
Bitcoin soared in April after a modest rally in March after five consecutive months of decline.
This data also highlights the changing landscape for crypto exchanges and the importance of crypto derivatives, including perpetual futures and, increasingly, prediction markets.
Perpetual futures, known as “purps,” continue to be the primary venue for trading activity, liquidity, and price discovery. At the same time, spot trading, which early crypto exchanges were built around, is becoming less reliable as an engine for stable returns, as it relies on continuous accumulation cycles that aren’t always present.
In 2026, demand for cryptocurrencies is uneven and mostly reactive. Price movements are closely tied to the broader market, driven by changes in US interest rate expectations and periodic geopolitical shocks resulting from the Iran war, rather than regular spot accumulation or demand from potential buyers. The industry also lacks catalysts, as regulatory progress has stalled, particularly on the market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act.
Moreno noted that a similar pattern (increasing futures demand due to contraction in spot demand) appeared at the start of the 2022 bear market, followed by a long period of price declines. With that in mind, the current uptrend could come with downside risks if the overall market remains bearish, Moreno said in the report.
Of course, the market during that period was closely tied to aggressive rate hike cycles and system-wide contagion events in the crypto industry. This also preceded the adoption of Bitcoin by financial institutions and the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and foreign corporate Bitcoin accumulators. strategythen called MicroStrategy.
“This does not mean that lagging spot demand has caught up with futures,” Moreno said. “Rallies based on this structure tend to be self-limiting. Without growth in spot demand to sustain price increases, the unwinding of futures positions typically drives subsequent corrections.”
Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $1.9 billion in April, bringing their total net assets to $100.53 billion. The Bitcoin treasury firm increased its net holdings by about 58,000 coins, worth about $4.4 billion at month-end value.
After hitting a high of about $79,500 in April, Bitcoin hit mostly lows for the rest of the month. As of Friday, it was up more than 2% for the first day of trading in May and was just over 1% off its April high.
—CNBC’s Nick Wells contributed reporting.
