The US flag on the Washington Monument and the dome of the US Capitol can be seen in the background.
Sebastian Gollnow | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Control of the U.S. Senate in this year’s midterm elections remains at stake just over half a year from Election Day, according to traders at prediction market platform Kalsi.
Traders are giving both Republicans and Democrats a 50% chance of winning control of the Senate.
Traders are pushing Democrats as favorites to flip the House majority, but their chances in the Senate in 2026 have narrowed.
The odds of a Republican retaining the majority declined between February and February from 67% on January 1, but the decline intensified in March as traders factored in the political fallout from the US-Iran war. Since the conflict began, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to the lowest level in his second term in many polls.
It will be difficult for Democrats to take over the Senate, as they would need to win several states that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, including Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Alaska. However, as of mid-April, Democrats had an estimated 54% chance of winning the House.
Those expectations are influencing policy, Bank of America economist Claudio Yrigoyen said in a note Friday.
“What is interesting about these developments is that, combined with the US administration’s declining approval ratings, there is an increased incentive to resolve the Iran war,” Yrigoyen wrote. “In our view, this is evidenced by the U.S. government’s push for an agreement.”
Polymarket traders also believe the Senate will be a close race, with Democrats having a 52% chance of winning and Republicans having a 50% chance of winning.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment in CNBC.
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