A job seeker holds a Florida Department of Corrections “Correctional Officer Recruitment” form during the Mega Job News USA South Florida Job Fair at Amerant Bank Arena on April 30, 2026 in Sunrise, Florida.
Joe Radle | Getty Images
Traders at prediction market platform Karshi have compiled forecasts that beat the consensus for April’s labor market report, which will be released on Friday.
Karshi traders believe there is about a 50% chance that more than 66,000 non-farm jobs will be created in the same month. This is higher than the 53,000 new jobs expected by economists compiled by Dow Jones.
Nonfarm payroll growth has fluctuated between job creation and job loss last year, but traders believe there is an 81% chance the report will show a positive number. This is the first consecutive month of employment growth since May 2025.
However, traders are also skeptical of reports with large six-digit numbers, saying there is only a 30% chance that the report will get noticed above 100,000.
Growth in non-farm employment has slowed significantly since 2025. Employment growth has been negative in five of the past 10 months. And in 2026, job growth has been erratic, with more than 150,000 jobs added in both January and March, but more than 133,000 jobs lost in February.
In polymarkets, traders have a somewhat pessimistic outlook. Traders on the platform believe the most likely scenario is between zero and 50,000 jobs created, with reported odds of 26%.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment in CNBC.
Markets change and headlines fade, but the fundamental principles of building long-term wealth remain the same. Join us for the third annual CNBC Pro LIVE. Investors from all backgrounds, from financial professionals to individuals, come together to cut through the noise and gain actionable strategies for smarter, more disciplined investing. No matter where you start, you’ll leave with clearer thinking and a stronger strategy. Enter your email address here to get your discount code
