An Iranian-made missile is displayed in front of the War Museum Mosque in Tehran, Iran, on April 2, 2026, during a military operation in Iran by the United States and Israel. (Photo credit: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Null Photo | Null Photo | Getty Images
Hello, my name is Hui Jie from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
Geopolitics is back in the spotlight. Tensions in the Middle East soared after Iran launched an attack on the United Arab Emirates, and the United States announced it had sunk an Iranian ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
The developments spooked investors, sent oil prices soaring, and prompted analysts to warn of another oil shock and reignite concerns about a broader economic slowdown.
What you need to know today
One of Murphy’s many laws of combat states, “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.” Recent developments in the Middle East are a stark reminder of that.
US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire appears to be on shaky ground after Iran launched an attack on the United Arab Emirates. U.S. Central Command says it has sunk six small Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump then escalated his remarks, telling Fox News that Iran would be “blown off the face of the earth” if it targeted U.S. ships protecting commercial ships passing through the strait.
He also called on South Korea to support U.S. efforts after a South Korean cargo ship claimed to have come under fire from Iran. As of this writing, the South Korean government has not publicly responded.
These developments have surprised investors. Brent crude oil futures, the international benchmark, rose nearly 6% to settle at $114.44 a barrel, while all three major U.S. stock indexes fell.
Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspect, said some analysts are warning that the global economy could be “sleepwalking” into a “great recession” as investors continue to underestimate the impact of oil price shocks.
Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe,” Sen said there is “very misplaced euphoria” among many investors, noting that many investors continue to view the ongoing energy crunch as a problem primarily confined to Asia.
Her warning is stern. If the energy shock persists, the global economy could “sleepwalk” into a serious recession.
And it wasn’t just overseas combat plans that were uncovered. Video game retailer GameStop’s proposed $55.5 billion takeover of eBay received a lukewarm response from investors.
GameStop’s stock price fell about 10% after GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen gave a combative interview with CNBC, raising questions about how the company would finance a deal far above its market value.
GameStop’s current valuation is less than $11 billion, while eBay’s market cap is nearly $49 billion. GameStop’s offer of $125 per share represents a 46% premium over eBay’s closing price on February 4, when the gaming retailer began investing in the company. However, questions remain about its feasibility.
The same principles seem to apply in both geopolitics and markets. Plans look solid on paper, but reality tends to intervene.
— Lim Huijie
And finally…
The total prize money for the World Cup approaches $900 million after FIFA increased its payouts. Here’s who gets what:
FIFA has increased payments to teams participating in the 2026 World Cup, with total distribution reaching $871 million, making it the most lucrative edition in history.
The minimum payout for each team is at least $12.5 million upon qualification, with additional prize money determined by performance in the tournament.
The 2026 World Cup will be the largest in history, expanding from 32 teams in 2022 to 48 teams. Four national teams will be participating in this year’s tournament for the first time: Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan and Uzbekistan.
— Matthew Chin
