22V Research expects bond yields and oil prices to reach levels that will put a damper on the bull market, and the company warns that those levels are not far off. Investors surveyed expect a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 5% or oil prices above $115 a barrel to cause “demand destruction,” meaning gross domestic product growth will fall below 1% for multiple quarters, said Dennis Debouchere, the firm’s chief market strategist. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to its highest level since early 2025 on Tuesday and was last trading at about 4.65%. Deboucher said yields reaching 5% “could happen soon” if the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for crude oil shipments that has been mostly closed since the US-Iran war began, does not reopen soon. 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Year-to-date High in 2026 “The unusual spike in the 10-year yield over the past week has increased tail risks,” Debouchere wrote in a Tuesday note to clients. “What we don’t know economically is how intense and long-term the supply constraints will be. Something could break.” When global 10-year bond yields fluctuate as quickly as they have recently, investors worry that “something bad could happen,” Debouchere said. Brent crude oil futures, the global oil benchmark, traded above $110 a barrel on Tuesday. Brent has soared more than 54% since the start of the war through Monday’s settlement. @LCO.1 2026 Year-to-date Brent Ranges Stock Risks Shares fell in Tuesday trading on pressure from rising interest rates. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has hit its highest level in about 19 years. But Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said major indexes remain near record highs, likely due to continued expectations for strong gross domestic product growth. Goldman forecasts that global nominal GDP growth will be 5.9% in 2026, up from 4.7% last year. Oppenheimer said this was driven by “tremendous” growth in technology and energy revenues. Indeed, Oppenheimer said the market rally behind these sectors has been highly concentrated, with communications, media and technology accounting for 85% of the S&P 500’s return this year. Stock prices could fall, especially if inflation heats up, he said. The strategist also said further spikes in bond yields create “significant risks” for equity investors. “Despite the fact that the increased momentum across the region reflects solid underlying earnings growth, there is increasing risk of a market correction on the back of a deteriorating growth-inflation mix,” Oppenheimer said.
