Safe havens are not acting like they used to. Here are the changes:

When the market collapses, investors usually know where to hide in U.S. Treasuries, the Japanese Yen, and gold.

But in 2026, that strategy won’t work as expected. Since the Iran war began, U.S. Treasury yields have risen, the yen has fallen to multi-decade lows against the dollar and gold has fallen sharply from its January high.

That’s because this is not a typical risk-off episode, strategists say. Investors continue to chase gains in AI stocks while inflation concerns, rising real yields, fiscal concerns and wide interest rate differentials overwhelm the usual demand for safety.

Frederick Newman, HSBC’s chief economist for Asia, told CNBC that underlying risk appetite remains healthy and global financial conditions remain very accommodative.

The U.S. and some Asian markets are hitting record highs as investors flock to AI stocks. Nvidia and intel state side, and samsung electronics, SK Hynix and Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company In Asia.

His view is supported by Henning Postada, global head of multi-asset at asset management firm DWS.

“The driver for stocks is EPS growth. Over the long term, that’s the only driver that matters for stocks, and EPS projections are going up,” Postada told CNBC.

In the current climate of geopolitical uncertainty, two factors are preventing a flight to safety for bonds: inflation expectations and debt sustainability.

DWS’ Postada explained: “You had the Iran war, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, (and) oil prices rose from $60 to $120, which led to inflation expectations, or actually increased inflation. This is a situation where the bond market is not driven by growth, but by inflation expectations.”

Rising inflation expectations generally make bonds less attractive because they erode the purchasing power of future fixed interest payments and cause current bond prices to fall.

When it comes to debt sustainability, despite investors’ strong confidence in US debt, the US federal deficit is causing some concern.

“We’ve always talked about deficits, but on a net debt basis, we’re more leveraged than we’ve ever been,” Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Rob Kaplan said last year.

At the time, Kaplan said the country’s projected budget deficit was about $2 trillion, about 6% to 7% of GDP, historically high excluding recessions.

However, the actual number was lower. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the United States is expected to run a federal budget deficit of approximately $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP, in fiscal year 2026.

When it comes to gold, kings and poor people throughout history have traditionally sought out the yellow metal, but the poor price of gold has puzzled experts.

Billy Leung, investment strategist at GlobalX ETF, is clear. “Gold hasn’t behaved like a pure safe haven lately.”

“Weightened by a stronger US dollar and higher real yields, they tend to dominate price movements even during periods of volatility,” he added.

DWS’ Postada agrees that gold’s price movements are “abnormal,” but believes this could be due to retail and leveraged flows.

He said many retail investors flooded the gold market during last year’s rally, but this “fast money” is now creating even more volatility.

“Structurally, we think gold remains a good safe haven,” he added.

When asked about circleexperts were even more skeptical. Some believe that the yen may no longer be the safe-haven asset it once was due to factors such as the Bank of Japan’s deviation from its policy direction, Japan’s debt sustainability, and a weaker currency.

Rising interest rates usually strengthen a currency, but this despite the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to the highest level in 30 years. Japanese government bonds After hitting a record high, the currency has fallen to its lowest value in decades against the dollar following a $74 billion intervention.

As of July 3, the yen exchange rate is hovering around the 162 yen level. against the dollar.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Tokyo’s debt-to-GDP ratio will be an astonishing 204.4% in 2026, making it the highest in the world.

“Confidence in the yen has declined given the policy differences with the Bank of Japan and the yen’s sensitivity to yield differentials,” Leon said.

In other words, safe havens have not disappeared, but they have become much less predictable. U.S. Treasuries, gold and the yen are increasingly responding to their own macro fundamentals, rather than rallying all at once with every market upset.

For investors, this means that previous crisis strategies may no longer be sufficient, and building resilience may require a broader mix of assets rather than betting on a single traditional haven.