China’s unusual missile test will push wary Asia-Pacific countries into a close race.

China’s unprecedented launch of a ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the Pacific Ocean demonstrates that it has a maritime presence for nuclear weapons, and will likely prompt countries in the region to strengthen their defense ties and build a wall against China.

A People’s Liberation Army Navy submarine launched a missile equipped with a dummy warhead into international waters at 12:01 p.m. on Monday, state news agency Xinhua said. The report said the missile “landed precisely within the designated sea area” and said the launch was “part of China’s routine military training” and was not targeting any specific country.

The launch was the first strategic missile test in the region since China launched a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile near French Polynesia in September 2024. This is the first known intercontinental ballistic missile test in 40 years.

Rather than drawing regional powers into its orbit, the test is likely to encourage deeper mutual defense ties to counter China’s growing military power, analysts said.

“This assertiveness by Beijing should help bring America’s allies in Asia closer together,” said Elie Ratner, a former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs. He added that the test highlighted the speed and scale of China’s military modernization, including its nuclear forces.

Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, said Beijing’s military modernization and arsenal expansion has already brought local governments closer together, and “this test is likely to exacerbate those concerns.”

“China mainly used this missile launch to test and demonstrate its second-strike nuclear capability,” Zhang said, noting that the sea test followed a land launch in 2024. “Maybe the next test will be an airborne missile.”

He expects more cooperation in joint training, arms sales and defense spending between countries such as Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the Philippines.

For years, Beijing has built up a nuclear triad – the ability to deliver warheads by land, air and sea – to strengthen its position in regional crises and conflicts with the United States.

The type of missile, its location, and where it was launched or landed remains unknown. State media Global Times quoted military experts as saying it was likely China’s most advanced submarine-launched ballistic missile, the JL-3, which is capable of reaching the U.S. mainland from Chinese coastal waters, according to the Pentagon.

Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Chen Xi said in a statement late Tuesday that the test “achieved the intended goal” and that neighboring countries had been notified in advance. “China maintains its nuclear forces at the minimum level necessary for national security, and has no intention of entering into a nuclear arms race with any country,” Chen added.

Analysts said the test reflected Beijing’s determination to project power to its neighbors, and that such exercises began almost immediately, despite the surveillance and vigilance of regional powers.

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the launches were “destabilizing in the region” and took place “in the context of China’s rapid military buildup.” New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said China carried out the test “within hours of informing us”, warning that it suggested a “repeat pattern” for Beijing.

The US State Department also condemned the exercise, saying that Beijing’s “rapid and opaque nuclear weapons buildup is of great concern to the region and the world.”

David Silvey, a military historian and senior lecturer at Cornell University, said the launches “fit a pattern of continued attacks by China as it flexes its muscles in the Pacific,” and said U.S. allies were already growing wary of the Trump administration’s wavering commitment to their defense.

But Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asian Social Policy Institute, said that in China’s calculations, demonstrating progress toward a full nuclear triad was worth the risk of regional blowback. “The benefits of deterrence outweigh the diplomatic and military costs in the region.”

The leaders of Fiji and Australia signed a mutual defense treaty on Monday that requires the two countries to discuss security threats and “act to meet common dangers” if either is attacked. The deal comes as Canberra seeks to rein in Beijing’s growing security influence through defense deals with Pacific nations.

Last week, the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu agreed with Australia to ban foreign military bases from its territory, in a move seen as targeting China. The Solomon Islands, one of China’s closest security partners in the region, announced last month that it would review its security agreement with China while negotiating a comprehensive agreement with Canberra.

Professor John Blaxland of the Australian National University said the show of force could further legitimize Fiji’s choice and send a signal to other countries that “China is prepared to take a more aggressive stance and should be more amenable to Australia’s offers for security cooperation”.