Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh looks on during his first press conference since taking the helm of the central bank, June 17, 2026 in Washington.
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
Federal Reserve policymakers are divided on the direction of interest rates, and Kalsi traders appear to be divided, too, putting the probability of a rate hike this year at just over 50%.
Calci prediction market traders currently believe there is a 54% chance the Fed will raise rates this year. This was a slight decrease from 56% the previous day. The contract asks Kalsi traders when the rate hike will occur and whether it will settle if the rate hike occurs before the end of this year, before July 2027, or before 2028.
Karshi traders believe there is a nearly 80% chance that a rate hike will take place in 2028, and a 62% chance that it will happen by July 2027.
These results were announced a day after the US central bank released the minutes of its June meeting. “Many participants expressed the view that the appropriate level for the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year,” the document said.
Key interest rates currently range from 3.5% to 3.75% and have remained at these levels since December 2025.
The Fed’s latest minutes also showed that “many other participants” believe the appropriate level for interest rates is “above the current target range at the end of this year.”
As the United States grapples with inflation and rising tensions in the Middle East, central bank policymakers are divided. The Federal Reserve’s recommended inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, reached an annual rate of 4.1% in May, the highest level since April 2023.
Another similar market on Calsi asks how many rate cuts will occur this year, with the probability of no rate cut seen at about 76%.
Those odds first rose from 68% to 77% on June 16, the first day of the Federal Reserve Board meeting with Kevin Warsh as chairman. These numbers did not change much before and after the minutes were released on Wednesday. Market results will be verified by the Fed.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
