NANJING, CHINA – JULY 9: Aerial view of new energy vehicles waiting to be shipped at Longtan Port area of Nanjing Port in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China on July 9, 2026.
Yang Spin | Visual China Group | Getty Images
China trade growth was much stronger than expected in June, with shipments surging on rising global demand for AI hardware and a rush of exporters to counter expected U.S. tariff hikes.
Tuesday’s customs figures showed overall exports rose 27% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, the highest level since October 2021, accelerating from May’s 19.4% increase and well ahead of economists’ expectations for an 18.2% increase.
In the first half of the year, China’s fastest-growing exports were semiconductors, rare earths, automobiles and ships, while laggards included toys, footwear, steel and furniture.
Shipments to the U.S. rose about 14% last month, while imports rose 26%, according to official CNBC data calculations.
According to China Beige Book, factory activity accelerated in June as orders to the United States recorded a significant year-on-year increase and freight rates rose. As a broad 10% tariff expires on July 24, manufacturers are bracing for additional duties stemming from President Donald Trump’s Section 301 investigation.
China’s exports to the United States experienced double-digit year-over-year declines for most of last year, but returned to positive territory in the first half of this year.
Imports rose 36% in June, the largest increase since June 2021, gaining momentum from May’s 27.4% rise and well above the 24% rise expected by economists. The trade surplus in June was $125.6 billion.
Similar to exports, the strength in imports was concentrated in high-tech products, but other categories remained weak, indicating weak domestic demand.
Robust industrial production and exports linked to the global AI investment boom remain key growth drivers, even as a prolonged real estate downturn and global oil price fluctuations dampen consumption and private investment, as the Chinese government grapples with a deepening supply-demand imbalance.
Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said exports are likely to remain strong in the second half of this year, potentially further escalating trade tensions between China and its trading partners, especially Europe. Brussels and China last month established a trade and investment consultation mechanism aimed at rebalancing bilateral trade, with European officials targeting “tangible results” in October.
Shipments to the EU and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose 18.5% and 35%, respectively, while imports rose 9% and 27%, according to customs data.
Another wild card is the Russia sanctions bill proposed by the late U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham. The bill initially proposed imposing secondary tariffs of up to 500% on products from countries that buy Russian oil and gas, a fine that would hit China, the largest buyer of Russian crude.
“These factors could undermine the country’s already strong export performance,” said Lin Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank.
Oil imports fall to 10-year low
According to calculations by CNBC, China’s crude oil imports fell 41% year-on-year to 29.3 million tonnes, reportedly the lowest level in nearly a decade. China’s total oil imports in the first half of the year decreased by 11% compared to the previous year.
“This appears to reflect a decline in stocks rather than a collapse in oil demand,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics.
China is expected to announce second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect growth to slow to 4.5% in the second quarter, after a solid 5% in the first quarter.
June industrial production and retail sales, also released on Wednesday, are expected to expand by 4.7% and contract by 0.1%, respectively. Urban investment is expected to fall by 4.9% in the first half of the year, down from 4.1% in the first half, according to a Reuters poll.
Investors are now eyeing a Politburo meeting scheduled for late July for clues on the stimulus measures that could shape policy for the rest of the year, but given the resilience of exports and Beijing’s focus on reining in excess factory capacity to fight deflation, analysts don’t expect meaningful stimulus unless growth slows more sharply.
