The CEO of a maritime risk services company said Iran has repeatedly attacked ships over the past week and the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz has returned to a “worst-case scenario” for oil tankers.
“We are seeing a decline in the volume of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and ship crews are now even more concerned than they were before,” Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Athens-based Mariskus, told a Lloyd’s List Intelligence briefing this week.
“Nobody wants to move,” Maniatis said.
At least nine ships have been attacked since July 6 as Iran tries to force ships to sail through Hormuz through its territorial waters rather than through the U.S. military-protected route along Oman’s coast, according to data from the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency.
The oil tanker Al Bahiya was attacked off the coast of Oman on Tuesday, killing one sailor and injuring three others, the IMO said. On the same day, 11 sailors were injured in an attack on the Mombasa B, a crude oil tanker also sailing near Oman.
Jakob Larsen, chief security officer at BIMCO, one of the world’s largest shipping associations, said anti-ship missiles were used in the Iranian attack.
“All of this resonates with the crew, and so far they have not been very willing to accept, even if they have been promised,” Maniatis said. “It’s no longer a question of money. It’s not a question of some other higher calling. It’s purely a question of fear that is now controlling decision-making.”
The U.S. military grounded an empty oil tanker on Wednesday after reimposing a naval blockade against Iran this week, according to U.S. Central Command. According to Centcom, the Curaçao-flagged M/T Verma ignored multiple warnings while transiting international waters en route to Iran’s Kharg Island.
Larsen said the traditional route through the middle of Hormuz, known as the Traffic Separation Plan, remains too dangerous for ships to use due to the threat of mines.
“If a mine explodes, it usually happens under the ship,” he said. “Sea mines are very powerful weapons, so it’s very dangerous for a ship to run into a minefield.”
The traffic jam in Hormuz is slow.
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that all ships except Iranian vessels will be allowed access to Hormuz after the U.S. reinstates the naval blockade.
“If people want to experience it, we’re open to it,” Trump said in a Fox News interview. “We’re not open to Iran. That’s the only thing that’s closed. We’ve been closed to Iran both internally and externally, but now we’re open.”
But ship tracking companies are observing a sharp drop in traffic. Lloyd’s team of analysts monitoring the strait said Hormuz was once again largely closed, with only a few ships passing through with their transponders turned off.
Traffic fell to a three-week low, according to data from trade information firm Kpler. Kupler said vessel traffic on Thursday was down to eight, down from 15 the day before. Before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, more than 100 ships were passing through Hormuz every day.
The US launched six airstrikes against Iran in retaliation for the tanker attack. Iran responded with a volley of missiles targeting U.S. allies in the Gulf. Iran and Yemen’s Houthi alliance are now threatening to cut off shipping traffic in the Red Sea, which had been an important alternative route for Saudi Arabia’s oil exports during the war.
“Unfortunately, it seems like things are only going to get worse, and the situation could get even worse as time goes on,” Larsen told CNBC.
Seafarers need peace of mind
The escalation in fighting comes amid a dispute between the United States and Iran over how to reopen the port of Hormuz under a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17. The Iranian government promised safe passage for ships navigating the strait, but the agreement did not specify which routes ships should use.
Larsen said shipping companies need reliable reassurances from Iran and the United States that Hormuz is safe. He said the alternative if there is no deal is for the U.S. to continue attacking Iranian missile batteries, drone operators and gunboats. Analysts said shipments could rise again if shippers believe the U.S. has succeeded in reducing the threat from Tehran.
Larsen said shipping companies have different risk appetites, with some willing to move through Hormuz and others looking to stay away from the strait altogether.
But the decision to transit Hormuz is not solely made by “ship owners sitting behind desks,” analysts said.
“It also requires the crew to actually buy in,” he says.
