JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon speaks at the 2025 International Finance Association Annual Membership Conference in Washington, DC, October 16, 2025.
Samuel Corum | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JP Morgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said investors were underestimating the risks facing the global economy and would not buy stocks or long-term U.S. Treasuries at current prices.
In an hour-long interview with Wilfred Frost published late Monday, Mr. Dimon said the market had not fully taken into account the growing list of geopolitical and financial threats.
“I think those risks are probably greater than other people think,” Dimon said, citing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the U.S. and China, and increased military spending amid rising government deficits.
Asked whether markets were underestimating the potential for large shocks, Dimon said it was difficult to know exactly what risks were already reflected in asset prices.
“It’s possible that something is baked in, but there are things that are actually happening that aren’t baked in,” he says.
Mr. Dimon, who leads the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, often warns the public about the economic risks he sees.
His latest comments stand in contrast to investors’ recent willingness to look past wars, tariffs and other shocks. of S&P500 Returns have been close to 10% this year as consumers continued to spend, inflation eased and investors embraced artificial intelligence trading.
last week, JP Morgan Chase The company and its peers reported impressive quarterly results, buoyed by a surge in trading and investment banking revenue, reinforcing the view that the U.S. economy has weathered recent geopolitical turmoil better than most expected.
In an interview on The Master Investor Podcast, Mr. Dimon acknowledged that the global economy is more resilient because it is less energy dependent than in previous decades, but cautioned that this does not eliminate the possibility of a sudden inflection point.
“It may take more straws on the camel’s back to trigger that tipping point,” he says. “Despite the current war starting again, perhaps that will not be enough.”
Dimon said persistent U.S. budget deficits could eventually be forced into liquidation and interest rates could rise.
He predicted interest rates would rise as so-called bond vigilantes demand greater compensation to finance government debt. “My view is that that’s going to be a problem.”
Stocks, AI cycle
In response to a question, Mr. Dimon said he had no intention of buying long-term government bonds, saying, “Personally, no.”
Even if inflation returns to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, “the 10-year bond should probably be 4% to 4.5%,” he said, adding that there is little room for upside in U.S. bond prices.
He was similarly cautious about stocks. Mr. Dimon said he would consider individual stocks if they were a “great investment,” but said he would not be a buyer for the market as a whole at current valuations.
Dimon also compared today’s consumer boom to the early days of the Internet and struck a cautious note about artificial intelligence.
“The amount of money being spent is huge. Will there be a total benefit? Probably the same as the Internet did,” Dimon said.
He also pointed out that during the Internet boom, some of the early giants, such as Yahoo and Netscape, declined, while others eventually emerged as winners. google and facebook It appeared later.
“Will it deliver what we expected? Will it deliver on the timeline we expected? Definitely not,” Dimon said.
