Oil tankers are increasingly under attack on multiple fronts as economic warfare becomes a weapon in the escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Europe.
Iran has stepped up attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz this month in a bid to tighten its control over the vital oil corridor. Iran’s allies in Yemen, the Houthis, opened a second front this week by shelling two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea after declaring a maritime embargo on Riyadh.
Meanwhile, Ukraine announced that it had attacked more than 150 tankers, cargo ships and other vessels associated with Russia’s shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, according to the Kyiv Post.
Global commodity strategy chief Helima Croft told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” Thursday that the oil market is currently dealing with a war on multiple fronts. Oil prices soared more than 30% in July as the security situation in the southern Red Sea and Hormuz rapidly deteriorated, with Brent crude breaking above $100 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since May.
Ship traffic through Hormuz dropped sharply after picking up in the weeks after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 to reopen the strait.
“After the collapse of the memorandum, this dispute has entered its worst phase for the commercial shipping industry,” said Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Maririsks, a maritime risk services company headquartered in Athens, Greece.
“The main reason is the fact that the Iranians want to assert more authority and control over what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz,” Maniatis said.
Some 61 commercial ships have been attacked in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman since March 1, killing at least 17 sailors and injuring dozens, according to the United Nations agency International Maritime Organization.
At least a dozen tankers have been rammed in and around Hormuz this month, killing at least two sailors, according to IMO data, as fighting intensifies between the United States and Iran.
The Red Sea attack now threatens millions of barrels of oil per day that Saudi Arabia has diverted through pipelines to the West Coast amid the security situation in Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s exports pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a difficult barrier between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
“Iran and the Houthis are now jointly inflicting very serious damage to American interests, American oil companies, and of course Saudi Arabia,” Maniatis said. “However, we have not been able to completely prevent exports.”
In response to Israel’s war in Gaza, the Houthis attacked ships in the Red Sea between 2023 and 2025, dramatically reducing traffic on the Bab el-Mandeb river. Transport through the strait had not yet fully recovered.
Saudi Arabia can transport some oil through pipelines that run from Red Sea ports across Egypt and into the Mediterranean, but the logistics are complicated, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kupler.
Smith said the Suez Canal was too shallow for supertankers to pass through with full cargo. He said Saudi Arabia would need to offload half of the cargo at Ain Sokhna port, take it by pipe to Sidi Keril port, then send a supertanker through Suez to recover the oil on the other side.
Smith said the supertanker would have to make a much longer journey around Africa to its destination in Asia and return by the same route through Suez because of the Houthi threat in Bab el-Mandeb. He said the round trip will take about eight weeks.
Middle East oil transport routes and pipelines
CNBC
Croft said maritime oil shipments from the Middle East were increasingly facing a “no-exit” scenario due to disruptions in the Red Sea.
Meanwhile, in the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea Pipeline Consortium stopped loading tankers at the Russian port of Novorossiysk due to attacks on ships. Kazakhstan exports about 80% of its crude oil through its pipelines, Croft said in a note to customers this week.
Kazakhstan has limited pipeline alternatives, which means production of about 1.7 million barrels per day in June could face a halt, Croft said. Analysts say Ukraine has also attacked Russian oil refineries, resulting in more than 50% of the country’s production capacity being shut down.
The pipeline stretches from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea.
CNBC
“Russia currently has a ban on exporting products, and Russian refineries have been hit hard by Ukraine,” Croft told CNBC. “Russia is one of the largest exporters of products, one of the largest exporters of diesel. Not only the oil market but also the product market is really tight.”
Croft said in a note that a dangerous escalation in the Middle East after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could send Brent crude oil prices soaring past their 2022 high of $128 per barrel. In a worst-case scenario, in which the region descends into all-out war, Brent crude oil could exceed its 2008 peak of $148 a barrel, he said.
