John Larson loses Connecticut primary: What it means for Social Security

Lawmakers elected to Congress in 2026 will likely be tasked with strengthening Social Security in preparation for a looming funding shortfall in 2032, and their efforts could be affected by the outcome of the Connecticut primary.

Democratic Rep. John Larson, the ranking member of the House Ways and Means and Social Security subcommittee that is pushing for expanded Social Security benefits, will not appear on the November vote.

On Tuesday, voters in Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District will choose between incumbent Larson and several challengers. Based on a 99% vote share, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin won about 54% of the district’s vote, and Larson won 33%, according to MS NOW.

Larson, who served 14 terms in the House, said in a speech Tuesday night that he was “disappointed” by the primary results.

“But we are not discouraged. We have a responsibility and a job to do, and we must come together as a people, as Democrats, and fight for what is right for the American people,” Larson said.

Larson previously chaired the Social Security subcommittee when Democrats controlled the House. Larson has long advocated for the Social Security 2100 Act, a bill aimed at expanding benefits while extending the program’s solvency.

Larson reintroduced the Social Security 2100 Act on June 26th. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) introduced a version of the bill to the Senate on July 21.

The Social Security 2100 Act calls for increases in some benefits that run through 2036. Some of the proposed changes include increasing benefits across the board, changing the way annual cost-of-living adjustments are calculated, and increasing minimum benefits for long-term low-income earners.

To pay for these changes, the bill eliminates the Social Security payroll tax cap and calls for taxing investment income for taxpayers making more than $400,000. In 2026, the Social Security payroll tax cap will be set at $184,500. Income above this limit is not subject to the 6.2% payroll tax for workers and employers.

The re-proposal comes as the Social Security Trust Fund, which helps pay for retirement benefits, is expected to run out in the fourth quarter of 2032, about six years from now, according to the Social Security Trustees’ latest projections. At that point, 78% of those benefits will be paid unless Congress comes up with a solution.

Beneficiaries in Connecticut could face the heaviest losses if the trust fund is depleted, with an average monthly benefit reduction of $556, according to June state-by-state estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan organization focused on educating the public on fiscal policy issues. According to the CRFB, states with higher average benefits will see larger cuts, and their analysis assumes a 24% across-the-board reduction.

The leaders elected to the Senate this November will serve until early 2033, shortly after Social Security is expected to run out in late 2032. The term of House leadership elected in 2026 ends in 2029.

In a July 28 debate with other Democratic candidates, Larson said Social Security 2100 would be “one of the first bills” in the first 100 days of the next Congress.

“We’re going to put Social Security in place and pay for it,” Larson said.

Following Tuesday’s election results, the Social Security Administration, which advocates for protecting and expanding the program, said it plans to continue supporting the changes proposed by Larson.

“We’re taking Congressman Larson’s baton and honoring his life’s work by fighting harder than ever to make billionaires pay their fair share, so we can protect and expand Social Security for everyone,” Alex Lawson, executive director of Social Security, said in a statement.

Social Security Works’ political action committee endorses candidates based on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid platforms.

During the candidate debate, Bronin said that under Larson’s leadership, Social Security 2100 could not be moved out of committee when Democrats were in the majority.

“I don’t think it would be honest with voters to say that the bill will become law within the first 100 days of the next Congress with Donald Trump in the White House,” Bronin said.

“I’m proud to fight to protect Social Security,” Bronin said during the debate, noting that changing Social Security requires building a movement outside the walls of the Capitol.

“I think it’s good to have some young advocates for Social Security as part of that fight,” Bronin said. “Because if we’re going to succeed, all Americans of all ages need to realize that they too have a stake in this.”

Bronin did not mention specific plans during the debate, but Amanda Sands, a senior adviser to Bronin, told CNBC in an email that “we believe part of the solution needs to be to remove the cap so that high-income earners can pay more in Social Security, as is called for in many proposed bills.”

Bronin will face Republican candidate Amy Chai, a physician specializing in primary care and addiction medicine, in November.

Chai told CNBC in an email that he “strongly” opposes both the Republican and Democratic platforms on Social Security.

Chai said his plan would cap Social Security payroll taxes and cap increases in payroll tax rates, eliminate the employer portion of self-employment taxes and require public employees to participate in Social Security.

To address Social Security’s funding shortfall, Chai said he would require that the program’s obligations be funded before foreign aid begins.

“This is a fair way to deal with Social Security taxes,” Chai wrote. “It’s our money. We give it back. It’s regular.”