Stricter U.S. visa policy reduces international student enrollment: Report

Fewer new international students chose to enroll in U.S. universities last year amid ongoing debate over immigration policy and international student visas, and new data suggests enrollment could fall even further next year.

Although the number of applicants for undergraduate admissions for the upcoming 2026-27 academic year increased overall, the number of international applicants fell by 10% through March 1, the largest decline on record, according to a report released by Common App on Thursday.

The number of new international students studying in the United States in the fall 2025 semester decreased by 17% from the previous year, according to the U.S. Department of State and the Institute of International Education’s Fall 2025 Snapshot. IIE’s Spring 2026 Snapshot estimates a further decline in overall international enrollment heading into next fall.

According to data from the Common App, there has been a notable decline in the number of applicants from Asia and Africa. With fewer non-U.S. students creating accounts on college application platforms, the future international admissions pipeline is likely to shrink even further, according to Common App researchers.

Jamie Beaton, co-founder and CEO of university consulting firm Crimson Education, said new rules that eliminate traditional “duration of status” and limit F-1 and J-1 stays to four years, limits or delays in visa reservation periods, and recent country-specific restrictions “will not have an evenly negative impact on U.S. higher education.”

“The selection that was already underway will accelerate. Universities that cannot demonstrate a clear return on investment will reduce enrollment and cut programs, but top schools such as Harvard, Stanford, MIT, and Duke will remain in a strong position.”

For universities that rely on tuition revenue from international students, the Trump administration’s new rule limiting the length of stay on student visas to four years could put some schools in financial jeopardy, according to a separate Fitch Ratings analysis released in early August.

“Continued declines in new international enrollment could have a significant impact on revenues, as international students often pay full tuition and receive less institutional support than domestic students,” Fitch analysts said. “It’s difficult to quickly recover lost revenue.”

In particular, universities with large graduate programs and STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) programs, where degree completion can take more than four years, will have difficulty maintaining their admissions pipeline and “may incur higher costs to meet international recruitment challenges,” the analysts said.

Beaton said the nation’s most elite universities, including Ivy League schools, will continue to easily fill classes — “the international applicant pool is so deep that even assuming a significant reduction in demand, we will be significantly overcapacity.”

The actual impact is several notches down, he said. “Mid-sized private and regional public universities rely heavily on fully-funded international students, and as these applicants begin to disperse to places like the UK, Australia and Singapore, as the domestic pipeline shrinks due to the population cliff, these schools are unable to backfill their revenues or raise prices in a market where ROI is already in question.”

The Trump administration’s changes to student visa policy could also have significant economic costs.

The United States has historically been the largest source of international students, primarily from India and China, but local economies are expected to suffer a total loss of $3.4 billion this year due to enrollment declines this year, according to an analysis by the Association of International Educators (NAFSA).

The loss of students could put up to 40,000 U.S. jobs at risk, the report said.

“These projections confirm what we have been warning for years: U.S. policies and regulations will influence where international students invest in the future, and those decisions have significant short- and long-term impacts on U.S. society and the economy,” NAFSA Executive Director and CEO Fanta Au said in a statement.

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