French wine production nears lowest level in 70 years as heatwave hits harvest

Florent Latour, CEO of Burgundy’s largest Grand Cru vineyard owner, spent the summer praying for rain.

“We felt very close,” Latour, head of Maison Louis Latour, told CNBC. “With a little more rain we would have had a great harvest on both counts, but we had to compromise on quality and yield by about half.”

His prayers and condolences are being echoed across France as record heat and severe drought hit France’s world-famous wine industry hard.

France’s agriculture ministry has warned that wine production could reach its lowest level in 70 years in 2026, marking the third year of declines.

“The 2023 vintage was decent, but since the beginning of the decade the yields have been pretty disastrous,” said Jean-Marie Caldeba, head of the Department of Wines and Spirits at INSEEC Grandes Ecoles. “Today we recognize that no region of France is safe from a heatwave.”

Paradoxically, the areas most affected are those with more temperate climates: the Loire Valley and the Champagne region. In contrast, winemakers in the southern regions of Bordeaux and Languedoc-Roussillon reported higher harvests compared to last year.

For Caldeva, who is also a professor of economics at the University of Bordeaux, France’s lack of preparedness in the face of climate change is a big problem.

“Spain is often affected by heatwaves and global warming, but it is better prepared,” he said. “One of the reasons is that we already have an irrigation network in place.”

He said this was rare in France and would only be allowed in exceptional cases. “France takes time to take such steps.”

The effects of climate change are fueling debate over stricter rules governing France’s wine sector.

Last year, Château Lafleur caused a stir when it withdrew the prestigious Pomerol and broader Bordeaux official designations for six of its wines.

The winery, owned by the Guineudeau family, said strict appellation (AOC) rules, including irrigation restrictions, planting density and allowed grape varieties, had prevented it from quickly adapting to climate change.

Moving away from these rules will allow vineyards to deal “accurately and effectively with the realities of climate change,” the Guinaudeaus explained at the time. “This is a bold decision that will allow the entire Lafleur family to ensure the permanence of the vineyard and the quality and identity of our wines. In a word: the future.”

Warmer temperatures also speed harvest, which can create major logistical problems for winemakers.

“This year we started on August 14th, which is the earliest date ever for a Latour domaine… What we’ve seen is that on a 10-year basis, the midpoint of the harvest is moving three days earlier every decade, so we’re essentially one month off the mark since the 1930s,” Latour said.

That means one of the biggest challenges with recent harvests is the “human challenge,” he added.

“If your predictions turn out to be wrong, you need the flexibility to be able to take your team to the vineyard immediately,” Latour said.

The economic impact of these changes on the sector, and indeed on the economy as a whole, could be significant.

This year’s harvest “could put us back in third place among wine-producing countries. 12 to 15 years ago we were still number one ahead of Italy, but now Italy is clearly in the lead,” Caldebat said. “Spain could overtake us. This drop to third place shows that France has real production problems.”

He said the change was symbolic but also important. “This represents a significant loss of potential revenue for France and the companies involved.”

In early September, the government revised its growth outlook for France downward to 0.5% (from 1% earlier this year), estimating that the heatwave and drought will cost France 0.1 percentage point of growth this year.

Meanwhile, production costs for wine farms are becoming increasingly high.

“Right now, the national debt is depleted. The more the climate is disrupted, the less we have the ability to invest. Even though we need to invest more…you can see that we are being drawn into a vicious cycle,” Cardevat said.

“I looked at business failures. In the wine sector, they tripled between 2019 and 2025. If you look at it from this perspective, I think there is an equally catastrophic risk in 2026.”

In late summer, the French government announced an emergency aid plan of more than 1 billion euros ($1.15 billion) to support farmers and wine producers affected by the heatwave.

This need for investment in adaptation is likely to accelerate consolidation in the sector, with Caldebat noting that over the past quarter century there has been a clear trend towards larger and larger properties.

“At the moment, I think quality requires a certain scale, because there is such an investment in human resources, plant and equipment. Once you have a certain scale, it is easier to absorb these costs,” Latour said, but added that “being family-owned and family-owned is valued more these days, if not as much as it used to be.”

And in 2026, about 4% of all French vines will be uprooted as part of a government support program in which growers will receive 4,000 euros ($4,590) per hectare for the permanent removal of vines.

This critical situation for French wine has led major companies to quickly consider new markets, products and generations.

“Different products, ready-to-drink options, completely different packaging. The U.S. is a great testing ground for this, how to entice people with new products,” Caldebat said.

He also cited South America, Brazil and India as promising new markets for French wine, thanks to a number of new trade agreements signed in recent years.

The key for Latour is the younger generation and looking further afield. “The important thing is…to make quality wine more affordable and more accessible.”

Given their young demographics, both South America and Brazil are now important markets for Maison Louis Latour, as is the African continent, he said.

These changes mean that, despite the challenges, Latour is optimistic about the future of France’s winemaking sector, at least for now.

“I think we obviously need to do a great job of explaining the background of the wines that we offer, their names, their history,” he added. “As long as we can do this in a way that is simple and meaningful for younger generations, and is high quality and recognized by consumers, I think we have a very attractive future.”