A vehicle drives on Highway 405 (overpass) past a U.S. flag outside the Marathon Petroleum Corporation Los Angeles Refinery on September 22, 2026 in Carson, California.
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US President Donald Trump has indicated the White House is still considering a ban on diesel exports as he faces growing political pressure over soaring fuel prices ahead of November’s midterm elections.
“We’re thinking about it very seriously,” Trump told a Fox News reporter Sunday while attending the Presidents Cup golf tournament in Illinois.
“That could often lead to a slight increase in the price of gas for cars, so we’re looking at that very seriously. We might do that,” he added.
President Trump has previously signaled support for an export ban as retail diesel prices soar to record highs, saying earlier this month that he would quickly decide whether to implement the ban “in some way.”
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said the White House is considering restrictions rather than a complete ban, while Politico reported last week that the Trump administration is preparing a plan for a 90-day ban on diesel exports.
The idea that the world’s biggest diesel exporter would implement a total ban has drawn a strong backlash from the US energy industry, but analysts warn the move could backfire and worsen the global fuel crisis.
Diesel prices have soared amid hostilities between the United States and Iran, Russia and Ukraine, and conflicts have severed vital oil and fuel trade routes. The average U.S. diesel price was hovering around $6.50 a gallon on Friday, up significantly from a year ago but just below the all-time high of $6.53 set on Sept. 22, according to AAA.
Commodity strategists at Morgan Stanley said export restrictions from the United States, a key source of marginal diesel supplies, are likely to initially lower U.S. diesel prices as imports from Russia and the Middle East decline, but “there could be negative downstream effects.”
“In addition to higher global diesel prices, we could see a feedback loop in U.S. gasoline prices as refineries adjust their operations,” Morgan Stanley strategists said in a research note Thursday.
“The biggest problem for the world’s oil system”
Benedict George, head of European product pricing at Argus Media, said any U.S. restrictions on diesel exports would likely cause European diesel prices and premiums to oil to rise to “new and unprecedented levels”, noting that the U.S. has supplied about half of Europe’s diesel imports in recent months.
“It’s very important to be clear that there is no response yet, and it’s very unclear whether there will be a response at all, and even if there is a vision, what that response will look like,” George told CNBC by phone.
Speaking with European oil traders, George said, it’s clear they have little doubt that the U.S. would restrict diesel exports, given how difficult the move would be for U.S. oil companies.
Cars wait in a long line to refuel at a Rosneft gas station in St. Petersburg, Russia, on September 15, 2026.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
In the United States, soaring diesel prices are placing an additional economic burden on not only drivers and households, but also farmers and agricultural workers ahead of the midterm elections in November.
The American Petroleum Institute, an oil lobby group, was among those quick to challenge the prospect of a ban on U.S. diesel exports when President Trump first appeared to endorse the idea last week.
“Restricting U.S. energy exports will only make the problem worse by exacerbating refining challenges and ultimately harming consumers,” API CEO Mike Somers said in a statement.
He added: “The answer is more supply and flexibility, not new restrictions that risk making a difficult situation even worse.”
Trump had previously called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop targeting Russian refineries, saying the attacks were “hurting the world” as fuel supply disruptions continue to push up U.S. diesel prices.
Ukraine, concerned about an extremely difficult winter amid expectations of new Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, has previously identified Russian refineries as legitimate military targets.
Argus’ George said Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries added a whole new layer to the global supply crunch, making diesel “the biggest problem for the global oil system, whereas previously it was one of several very big problems.”
What’s next for the global diesel supply shortage?
Asked for his outlook on how long the global diesel supply shortage will last, George said the uncertainty is so extreme that some traders have simply given up trying to predict the market.
“One trader told me recently that he doesn’t try to predict right now because it seems like a waste of effort. You literally don’t know what’s going to happen,” George said.
“I don’t know if the U.S. will put in place any restrictions, but I think what everyone is talking about are short-term measures, so definitely two or three months at the most… So there’s some kind of timeline for U.S. export restrictions, if they happen,” he said.
“But with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, no one knows. I mean literally no one knows. Nothing has worked so far to resolve that situation, and likewise with the semi-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
—CNBC’s Spencer Kimball and Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
