About 7 percent of the U.S. workforce (11 million employees) may need to change jobs within the next 10 years, according to a report released Sept. 29 by the McKinsey Global Institute.
Fueled by the AI boom, the U.S. economy could create more than 40 million new jobs over the next decade, but the spread of AI and other automation technologies could reduce demand for existing jobs by 21% by 2035, the equivalent of 36 million workers, the report said.
Approximately 25 million workers will be able to remain in their current occupations, although the nature of their work may change, while the remaining 11 million will need to pivot to other sectors.
“The good news is that demand will rise more than it will fall,” said Tanguy Catlin, director of the McKinsey Global Institute.
But for workers whose jobs will be affected by the introduction of automation, Catlin says automation is defined as “the proportion of the current workday that is potentially automated or meaningfully augmented” by technology.
According to the report, these are the top 10 occupations most affected by the introduction of automation, based on the number of full-time employees, the estimated percentage of current working hours affected, and the estimated reduction in labor demand due to automation.
1. Office and administrative support
Number of full-time employees: 18 million
Percentage of working hours affected: 81%
Labor demand reduction through automation: 38%
2. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Number of full-time employees: 400,000
Percentage of working hours affected: 76%
Reduction in labor demand through automation: 43%
3. Technology and analytics
Number of full-time employees: 5.2 million
Percentage of working hours affected: 70%
Labor demand reduction through automation: 22%
4. Manufacturing/Production
Number of full-time employees: 8.5 million
Percentage of working hours affected: 68%
Labor demand reduction through automation: 25%
5. Retail and Sales
Number of full-time employees: 13.3 million
Percentage of working hours affected: 67%
Reduction in labor demand through automation: 27%
6. Business and Finance
Number of full-time employees: 10.5 million
Percentage of working hours affected: 62%
Labor demand reduction through automation: 18%
7. Food service
Number of full-time employees: 13.7 million
Percentage of working hours affected: 60%
Reduction in labor demand through automation: 31%
8. Arts, Media and Entertainment
Number of full-time employees: 1.9 million
Percentage of working hours affected: 58%
Labor demand reduction through automation: 13%
9. Transportation and logistics
Number of full-time employees: 13.8 people
Percentage of working hours affected: 55%
Labor demand reduction through automation: 30%
10. Installation and repair
Number of full-time employees: 6.1 million
Percentage of working hours affected: 54%
Labor demand reduction through automation: 15%
Some jobs are “reinvented”
According to Catlin, higher levels of automation adoption do not necessarily mean less demand for workers. Some jobs are likely to be “reinvented” or enhanced by the adoption of AI, rather than being replaced, he says.
For example, automation could impact 47% of working hours in the legal field, but the projected loss in labor demand is only 18%.
Lawyers “historically have spent a lot of time investigating,” Catlin said, but now that AI can perform much of that investigation, lawyers will spend more time on tasks that require human judgment.
“While your job role and title will remain the same, how you spend your time will change dramatically,” he says.
With this data, Catlin says it’s important to note that there’s a difference between what “theoretically can be automated” and “what actually gets automated” within an organization. According to the report, “Technology determines what is possible, but managers’ choices determine how quickly those possibilities become reality.”
The number of workers who will need to change occupations could therefore range from 6 million to 16 million, with 11 million as the base estimate.
Navigate the transition
For the 11 million displaced workers, it’s “not necessarily easy” to move to a completely new job, Catlin said.
One in seven people has a “direct” path to a new job in an expanding field. This means you can find a role that requires similar skills, requires qualifications that are easy to obtain, and offers a salary equal to or higher than your previous job.
However, almost 45% are likely to face “unpaved” roads. This means finding a new job can require geographic relocation, significant reskilling or new qualifications, and often pays less than your old job.
“Obtaining these certifications can require an investment of time and money, which can be a source of friction for workers,” Catlin said.
Additionally, with 11 million workers moving into new roles within the next 10 years, approximately 770,000 workers will need to change jobs each year, a rate of change that is approximately 3.6 times the historical average.
Catlin said it was “feasible” for this transition to occur, but successfully navigating it would require a “systems-level response” from employers and governments investing in helping workers reskill. Employees “cannot address these gaps on their own,” he says.
In the meantime, Katrin advises employees to focus on developing skills such as problem-solving, interpersonal communication, collaboration, critical thinking, curiosity, and a desire to learn.
These skills, he says, will “help you get a better job” and “give you resilience as the world continues to change.”
“The pace of change has never been slower than it is today,” he continues. “So we need employees who embrace adaptability, continuous improvement, and continuous learning.”
