A combine harvester loads mustard seeds onto a tractor-trailer on farmland in Sumy Oblast, Ukraine, on August 25, 2026. Farmers in the Sumy region continue to work in the border area despite heavy Russian shelling.
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As Ukraine’s harvest season shifts from wheat and barley to corn, soybeans and sunflowers, farmer Oleksandr Chumak has recorded good yields so far. That should be good news.
Instead, after 11 years of growing various crops in the Odessa region of southern Ukraine, Chumak had had enough.
Storage facilities in both Ukraine and Russia hold millions of tons of agricultural products that would normally be sent to Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa, but are instead trapped in countries at war.
Attacks by Russian drones and missiles on Black Sea targets intensified over the summer and fall, making it impossible to insure commercial ships. Kiev’s retaliatory strikes will also disrupt Russian exports, further straining global supplies.
And with deadly attacks in the Black Sea continuing into October, prospects for a ceasefire appear slim, even as Turkey steps up efforts to broker a deal, citing risks to global food security.
Chumak says he is currently running out of cash, with about 80% of his grain unable to be sold profitably.
With domestic prices plummeting, farmers like him have little reason to sow 2027 seeds in the coming months.
“It’s very difficult for farmers, because they have to pay taxes, they have to pay rent for their land, and now they can’t do that because they can’t sell anything,” said Andriy Dykun, head of the Agricultural Council of Ukraine.
“The only crops we can sell are rapeseed and sunflower seeds. But even that is not enough… So why plant if there is no profit today?”
“If stocks are full, there’s no point in farming in the spring because it’s a waste of time and money.”
A worker works on a grain loader at the Gagarin Agricultural Company’s temporary storage facility during the harvest season in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region on August 3, 2026.
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Privatbank, Ukraine’s largest lender, told CNBC that it disbursed 1.53 billion hryvnia ($34.2 million) in working capital loans to agribusinesses between June and August. This is more than double the 718 million hryvnia of the same period last year. Small and medium-sized producers account for 70% of outstanding agricultural loans.
“Funds remain effectively tied up in grain stocks, but farms still need to cover ongoing operating costs and secure funds for autumn and spring sowing campaigns,” said Evhen Zaifraiyev, chief corporate and head of small and medium-sized businesses at state-run Privatbank.
“We are seeing a variety of strategies among our customers. Some farmers are selling their crops early, even at unattractive prices, to maintain sufficient operational liquidity, while other producers, particularly those with access to storage capacity, are delaying sales in anticipation of more favorable market prices,” he said in an email.
Ukraine’s grain and oilseed production is expected to increase from 80 million tons this year to 85 million tons, but carryover stocks from previous seasons are straining Ukraine’s storage infrastructure and logistics, Zayfrayev noted. These facilities include long plastic whitebags snaking through fields and metal grain elevators that are increasingly vulnerable to military attack.
“We are also seeing farmers gradually reconsidering their planting plans for next year, favoring oilseeds and niche crops whose prices are less dependent on logistics costs,” Zaifreyev added.
Farmer Oleksandr Chumak said he would follow that strategy and significantly scale back next year’s plantings, avoiding corn and barley altogether and choosing instead crops that do not require fertilizer. This, too, is facing global pressure amid the war between the US, Israel, and Iran.
Meanwhile, for Ukrainian peasants who are not currently drafted into the military, war with Russia is ever-present. “We live and work in places where you or your surroundings could be attacked by rockets or drones at any time,” Chumack said by phone. “We’re sleeping in beds with explosions 300 to 1,000 meters around us.”
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Ukraine’s agricultural sector has faced farm takeovers, mines and labor shortages since Russia’s full-scale offensive began in early 2022. International organizations are struggling to maintain export routes through a variety of agreements, including the collapsed Black Sea Initiative and the European Union’s politically contentious “Solidarity Lane.”
The situation at home and the impact on the global food chain is now the most severe since the war began.
According to the United Nations, Ukraine and Russia supplied the world with more than half of its sunflower oil, nearly a fifth of its barley and 14% of its wheat in the years leading up to the war. Ukraine is also one of the world’s largest corn producers, with China and the European Union the biggest buyers.
Approximately 90% of Ukraine’s main agricultural exports typically pass through the Black Sea. In August this year, exports of grains and legumes totaled 981,000 tons, down about 58% from the previous year.
Weakness elsewhere increases risk. The corn crop is expected to be particularly poor in Europe, and demand for feed remains high, necessitating more imports. The United States is also facing a poor corn crop.
So far, better wheat and barley crops in Canada, Australia and Argentina, as well as bumper harvests in the Middle East and North Africa, are cushioning the blow.
The continued lockdown is supporting commodity prices outside of Russia and Ukraine, but the reopening of Black Sea ports will trigger a wave of cheap supplies and “quickly turn the market around without warning,” said Benoît Fayou, senior manager of grains and oilseeds analysis at Expana.
He told CNBC that a deal between Ukraine and Russia to restore exports could reduce grain prices in other regions by tens of dollars. “They have such a large stake that it will be bearish for markets around the world,” he added.
Prices for wheat, barley, oilseeds and other products from Russia and Ukraine have become so low domestically that the race to find alternative routes via rail, road and river is intensifying, Fayo said.
But these alternative routes are “difficult to access from both countries and take time,” he said.
Ukraine’s Eastern European neighbors, including Poland and Romania, have resisted any move to allow grain to transit, even temporarily, out of fear that a glut would destroy demand for their crops.
Another option, via the Danube, is hampered by falling water levels. And an important bridge from Ukraine was damaged. Another option is to export through the Baltic states and overland to the Middle East and Central Asia via Georgia, but Fayo said this only covers a small portion of typical flows.
Andriy Dikun of the Agricultural Council of Ukraine stressed that there is no other option than the Black Sea route when it comes to pricing.
“It will always be cheaper for us to sell grain from Black Sea ports to other ports, even if you are a farmer on Ukraine’s western border, because it is much more profitable for farmers than selling through the border to the EU,” he said.
“So without Black Sea ports, it just won’t work for us.”
