On October 3, 2026, flames broke out at a facility belonging to Saudi oil giant Aramco south of Riyadh. (Photo courtesy of AFP, Getty Images) /
– | AFP | Getty Images
Hello, my name is Hui Jie from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
A ceasefire usually requires both sides to agree to stop fighting. However, US President Donald Trump appears to have streamlined the process. I just told them that.
“Well, they agreed. You know why? Because I said, ‘You agree.’ That’s why,” Trump said when asked why Russia and Ukraine refused to accept his proposed energy ceasefire.
According to Kiev, the Russian drone did not receive the memo. Ukraine said Monday that six of its energy facilities were attacked, but analysts doubt that another deal by President Trump to bring Russian diesel to the market will provide major relief to American pumps.
What you need to know today
US President Donald Trump on Monday defended his decision to temporarily ease sanctions on Russian diesel despite bipartisan criticism that the deal could help Russia finance its war in Ukraine.
“I made the right choice for the American people. America first always!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
This was done by seven senators (four Republicans and three Democrats) calling on the administration to change course, arguing that the United States should not provide President Putin with an economic lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians.
President Trump claims the additional supply will lead to record low diesel prices ahead of the November midterm elections.
Analysts are less convinced, saying initial shipments will be modest compared to global markets, while damaged Russian refineries and logistical hurdles raise questions about how quickly the fuel will arrive.
The easing of Russia sanctions comes in tandem with a chaotic energy ceasefire that President Trump reportedly brokered between Kiev and Moscow.
New Russian drone attacks hit Ukraine overnight, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accusing Russia of violating the ceasefire and warning that his country would retaliate.
“It is becoming increasingly clear that Russia is unwilling to accept the energy ceasefire proposed by the United States and intends to continue terrorist airstrikes against our people and communities,” Zelensky said in a post on X on Monday. “Today alone Russia attacked six energy facilities in Ukraine.”
President Trump’s insistence on a ceasefire and the prospect of increased diesel supplies did little to reassure oil markets. Brent crude oil futures rose 1.8% to close at $106.65 per barrel on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2% to close at $93.74.
Uncertainty further increased on Saturday when Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthi militants attacked King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh, killing 12 people and wounding more than 300 in a major escalation.
higher prices, higher fees
All developments in the energy market also mean that high energy prices are likely to continue to pose an inflationary headache for the Federal Reserve.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that interest rate hikes may be necessary to prevent “inflationary thinking” from taking hold among businesses and consumers.
Hammack said the Fed should move to a more restrictive policy stance relatively quickly, prioritizing small and frequent adjustments rather than waiting until large adjustments are needed.
Market expectations have factored in one more rate hike by the Fed this year, with traders expecting a 79.5% chance of a hike at its meeting starting Oct. 28, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In the technology world, Microsoft, which has so far relied primarily on Nvidia’s graphics processing units, plans to increase its use of its own artificial intelligence chips.
Microsoft said it will primarily rely on its own silicon to process incoming requests, starting with the third-generation Maia AI accelerator announced Monday.
Nvidia’s GPUs have become the standard for AI workloads and models, and are used in data centers owned by companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft.
IMF in Bangkok
In Thailand, the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Bangkok is in its second day.
The IMF is expected to release its latest economic outlook, which will provide some clues as to how it views the future. Investors will also be watching to see whether the company maintains its global growth outlook at near 3% and how loudly it warns of inflation risks.
And on Friday, the most anticipated event will take place. A meeting between Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. This will be the last public appearance scheduled before the Fed meeting on October 27th and 28th.
— Lim Hui Jie, Anique Bao
