A shopper browses near a “SALE” sign in the meat section of a grocery store. According to a new Guardian poll, 95% of Americans say the country is in the midst of a price crisis, with many reporting that they are having trouble getting essentials like gas and groceries.
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Millions of Social Security recipients could receive larger-than-average cost-of-living adjustments in 2027, according to experts’ estimates.
The Social Security Administration is expected to release the 2027 COLA on Wednesday, along with the release of new government inflation data. Social Security experts predict that COLA could raise benefits by 3.5% to 3.6% next year, the largest increase in three years.
But even with above-average increases, beneficiaries may still struggle to cover day-to-day expenses.
More than three-quarters (76%) of adults age 50 and older said they don’t think the expected 3.5% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment in 2027 will be enough, according to an AARP survey released Monday. The poll of 1,023 adults aged 50 and older was conducted from September 17th to 21st. The survey had a margin of error of 4.25%.
“I wish the cost of living increases were more generous,” said Donna Dalrymple, a 70-year-old retiree from Manchester, New Hampshire.
Because Dalrymple was diagnosed with cancer and retired at age 65, she claimed Social Security benefits and started making 401(k) withdrawals five years earlier than planned, she said. She said she is now concerned that other cost increases, particularly Medicare costs, could outpace the increase in Social Security benefits each year.
According to the Social Security Administration, the cost of living adjustment rate has averaged about 3.1% over the past 10 years.
September estimates showed Social Security COLAs could be the highest in three years.
The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior advocacy group, and Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, both predict that the COLA will be 3.5% in 2027. Meanwhile, AARP expects benefits to increase by 3.6%.
The last time beneficiaries saw an even bigger increase was in 2023, when soaring inflation caused COLAs to rise to 8.7% (the highest in 40 years). Beneficiaries increased by 5.9% in 2022 as inflation began to rise.
In 2026, Social Security recipients saw their benefits increase by 2.8%.
A 3.5% adjustment to Social Security cost of living in 2027 will increase average benefits by $67.90 per month from $1,940, to about $2,008 per month, according to the Federation for the Elderly.
How COLA differs from estimates
According to a recent AARP survey, 7 in 10 adults over 50 say a 5% to 8% increase is enough to maintain their daily living expenses.
The official release of Social Security COLAs, expected Wednesday, will include an additional month of inflation data and may differ from September’s estimates.
Johnson said Social Security’s COLA could rise to 3.6% due to a “very sharp rise in inflation.” However, if inflation were lower than expected, the COLA could be 3.4%, he said.
Social Security cost-of-living adjustments are automatically applied to your benefits to keep pace with inflation.
Since 1975, the COLA has been calculated annually for both Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits. However, in years with little or no inflation, the COLA could be zero.
Social Security Administration Secretary Frank Bisignano said Monday in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk on the Streets” that “the public is very appreciative and looking forward to” the upcoming COLA announcement.
How Medicare costs affect your COLA
Medicare cost increases in 2027 could limit the amount of increases Social Security recipients receive in their monthly checks.
The standard monthly premium for Medicare Part B, which is usually automatically deducted from your Social Security check, is projected to increase from $202.90 in 2026 to $209.50 in 2027. Medicare Part B covers certain medically necessary preventive services. Some beneficiaries may pay an additional fee called an “income-related monthly adjustment amount” if their income exceeds a certain threshold.
Meanwhile, Medicare Part D prescription drug plans could see a slight increase in premiums in 2027, according to an analysis by KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group. Part D premiums may also be deducted directly from your Social Security check.
The Trump administration recently announced it would send a one-time $90 direct payment to more than 20 million Medicare Part B enrollees to help pay their monthly premiums.
Dalrymple, a New Hampshire retiree, said he did not believe he was eligible for the lump sum payment, which excludes millions of Part B beneficiaries due to certain eligibility criteria. Dalrymple said he is concerned about rising Medicare costs in 2027.
“If the cost of Medicare eats into the cost of living (adjustment), then I think we’re going to have a real affordability crisis because rents are going up, groceries are going up, gas prices are going up,” Dalrymple said.
Some Democrats, such as Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, question the Trump administration’s motives for sending $90 payments just over a month before the midterm elections. Separately, President Donald Trump said the government would provide $5,000 to every adult American if Republicans retain control of the House and Senate.
Bisignano told CNBC on Monday that the $90 one-time payments are an example of how the Trump administration is “caring about the American people” and working to protect vulnerable populations, including the elderly, from poverty.
Kathy Callahan, 80, of Montpelier, Vermont, said she would have preferred the money to be placed in the Medicare Trust Fund, which is expected to run out of money to fund Part A in 2033, rather than handing it out to Americans in checks.
Callahan said she plans to donate her $90 check to the Senate campaign of Democratic Texas Representative James Talarico, who is running for the U.S. Senate.
