A ship transits the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Bandar Abbas, a port city in southern Iran, on September 7, 2026.
Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Images
Despite the sinking of a Singapore-flagged container ship this week, commercial ships are likely to continue navigating the dangerous Strait of Hormuz, with the Middle East’s strong demand for energy and lucrative shipping opportunities emboldening some operators to take on the escalating attacks, maritime experts said.
Recent attacks on two Singapore-flagged container ships have raised concerns about the safety of commercial ships passing through one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. But analysts say the incident is unlikely to halt remaining shipping activity through the strait, even though most major container ships have been grounded.
Colin Koh, a senior research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said shipping companies are likely to continue exploring opportunities to transit the strait despite the heightened security threats.
“In the short term, we don’t see a need for Singapore-flagged ships or Singapore shipping companies to avoid transit destinations if they have the opportunity,” Koh told CNBC.
His comments came in the wake of attacks on two Singapore-flagged container ships, GFS Pride and GFS Gisele, this week. GFS Pride was hit by a projectile, causing a fire and sinking, and GFS Giselle was damaged. The crews of both ships were reported to be safe.
Maritime analysis firm Kpler said the number of crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 131 in the week ending October 14, from 176 the previous week, but the decline was not solely due to recent incidents.
Dimitris Ampatsidis, Maritime Risk and Compliance Manager at Kpler, said the attack demonstrated Iran’s continued ability to threaten commercial shipping, and that the risks extend beyond oil and gas shipments.
Commercial incentives continue
Mr Coe said shipping lines around the world had continued to explore opportunities to navigate the strait since the conflict erupted, with some operators willing to accept higher risks and costs.
Strong demand for oil, particularly from Asia, is providing an incentive for tanker operators to transport energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, even as security threats complicate navigation.
Some carriers may be willing to take the chance, even if they have to pay a premium, Koh said.
Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan gave an example of how rising oil prices could make voyages through Hormuz commercially worthwhile despite the risks.
Speaking at the Milken Institute Asia Summit last week, Balakrishnan recounted conversations with unnamed Gulf officials and said the country was earning more money from oil exports than before the war by operating the so-called “Hormuz Shuttle,” which involves about 20 very large crude carriers.
The official said high oil prices made the voyage risky but economically worthwhile, and the ship was effectively self-insured against attack.
Balakrishnan quoted an official as saying, “Although sometimes you will be hit, it is still worth running the ‘Hormuz Shuttle.”
Ampatsidis said despite the risks, ships continue to transit through the strait, reflecting its commercial importance, particularly in transporting energy to Asian markets.
However, he added that further attacks could disrupt sailings for more operators, with the impact likely to vary depending on vessel type and individual companies’ risk assessments.
The Singapore Maritime Association also downplayed the possibility of a widespread withdrawal of merchant ships from the region, suggesting operators would adapt to changing conditions of trade.
“Rather than implying a widespread exit from the region, these developments are likely to result in adjustments to trading patterns as the market responds to changes in the supply and demand of goods and energy,” said TS Teo, chairman of the association.
He added that shipowners would continue to weigh commercial considerations against security developments and crew safety when making operational decisions.
Widespread shipping disruption
Although some operators still prefer to transit through Hormuz, much of the global container shipping industry has already adjusted its networks to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
Jayendu Krishna, director at Drewry Maritime Advisors, said none of the major container shipping lines had resumed operations through Hormuz since suspending operations after the outbreak of war in February. Only some regional carriers continue sporadic service, usually using small feeder vessels.
This means the immediate impact of recent attacks on container shipping may be limited, he said.
However, further expansion into the Gulf of Oman could pose a more serious threat to regional supply chains, especially if it disrupts alternative ports such as the United Arab Emirates’ port of Khorfakkan and Oman’s Sohar port, which are important gateways for cargo entering the Gulf states.
“If the Gulf of Oman becomes an active zone, a significant part of the supply to the Gulf countries will be cut off, because Korfakkan and Sohar are a lifeline for the Gulf countries,” Krishna said.
