power point
You will see everything.
This is not a reference to what is reportedly a surprising new documentary about disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes. That’s for the next few days and next week. Most of the days will be filled with financial results and large-scale meetings related to European energy issues.
More on energy revenue in “The Actionable Insider” below.
Next week for me will be multiple flights through multiple time zones. First up is ADIPEC, one of the most important energy conferences in the world, being held in Abu Dhabi. It’s someone from the energy industry. We will be speaking with executives from some of the world’s most influential energy companies. You can see some clips of this on CNBC and I’ll write about it here next week. I will also meet privately with some of the biggest names in the energy industry and have great conversations with country and business leaders about oil, gas, commodities, Hormuz, and more, all ahead of what is feared to be a further blow to Iran and its energy infrastructure. A tense time continues.
Later in the week, we’ll dig deeper into Europe’s slowly developing energy crisis. The Iran war and the risks of Hormuz add further weight to an already dangerous situation, but let’s be clear that they are not the reason Europe is energy constrained. Russia’s horrific invasion and the now four-year-old war in Ukraine have added gasoline to the fire that was started by bad policy decisions several years ago. I’ve been reporting on the energy situation in Europe for five years from the UK, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands, and next week I’m planning to go to Italy to show you what’s going on in Europe right now. Hint: That’s not good. Natural gas storage levels are below recent averages, and imported LNG prices are near record highs.
Of course, there is a risk that your travel plans will change, just like I had planned a trip to Riyadh a few weeks ago. Those plans were dashed when the Houthis launched despicable and deadly attacks targeting civilians in Riyadh and other Saudi cities.
Speaking of the Middle East, a few days ago I posted a pretty blurry photo on my X account that was sent to me by a friend in Dubai. During a morning swim, he spotted a U.S. Navy ship standing guard in the distance in the Arabian (Persian) Gulf. It’s blurry because I had to zoom in from a distance, but I think it speaks a thousand words nonetheless. Oil flows through Hormuz in part because the great US Navy ensures navigation. This ship and the brave men and women aboard it are part of that. However, there is also a risk that a new U.S. attack on Iranian targets could escalate the Iran war again. If this happens, there is a high possibility that oil will splatter. We live in a world of days and hours.
Stay calm, carry on…and keep your warships ready.
brian
active insider
Let’s face it: these numbers are going to be big. Big Texas size.
Expected numbers for ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are higher than those listed above. All three companies are expected to have EPS more than double last year. Then there are companies that focus on refining. they are completely different things.
Marathon Petroleum’s earnings estimate is $25.37 per share. That’s not a typo. Three months ago, EPS was $17.73, while the estimate was “only” $14.27. And consider this. Just one year ago, the Ohio-based company earned $4.51 per share. High oil prices and, more importantly, huge “crack spreads” on refined products are expected to increase sales by $13 billion in just one year.
For all four, guidance may be more important than the revenue itself. What these companies say about the future and capital spending is what matters most. Changes in spending plans will be closely monitored by investors.
These numbers are likely to attract attention from the political class as well. As oil prices rise, they are likely to use these big numbers to criticize the industry. One industry official said the industry is “used to” political attacks, but would like to see more focus on the boom-and-bust nature of many of the industries, and hopes that the money these companies are making now will help them prepare for a downturn and when oil drops again at some point in the future.
Whatever your interest in Big Oil, get your popcorn ready. Next week will be an important week for all energy investors in many ways, so I hope you can figure it all out.
BTIG chart analyst Jonathan Clinksy says investors need to be careful when it comes to energy. Regarding refiners in particular, he noted that the S&P Refining Index rose nearly 160% in 2026, its best year in at least 30 years.
“We expect at least some consolidation, but we are likely to see a significant reversal,” Krinsky said earlier this week.
Krinsky doesn’t like the look of Valero and Marathon Petroleum’s charts. Regarding the latter, the analyst said that the stock price “has not completely broken its upward trend, but it feels like an upward trend is coming.”
Let’s take a look
This week, we spoke with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright. He joins us from a nuclear power plant in rural Illinois. His office is providing billions of dollars in loan guarantees to help build more nuclear power plants in the United States. We spoke with the Secretary about that and about oil, Iran, Hormuz, and the importance of American LNG in maintaining the status quo in Europe.
