NHL’s next TV deal will test league’s strength

One of the biggest developing stories in entertainment and sports is how the world’s largest media companies are determining the value of non-NFL rights. The NHL will be the first public test of this new era of media ratings.

The NHL could begin formal negotiations on a new media rights deal between existing partners Disney/ESPN and TNT Sports’ new owner Skydance on January 1st. According to sources, the league is seeking a 50% to 100% increase in overall rights fees over the current contract. The NHL signed a seven-year, $4.5 billion deal with ESPN and TNT Sports in 2021.

It remains to be seen whether the league can actually achieve such an increase, but it will be one of the most closely watched data points in the sports business world next year.

The NHL’s national media rights currently account for about 13% of its annual revenue, or about $8 billion, according to CNBC estimates.

Disney/ESPN and Skydance hope to renew their contracts with the league, said the people, who requested anonymity because the negotiations are private. The two companies have been in preliminary talks with the league in recent weeks, and while there is still work to be done on the price front, there is mutual interest in getting something done.

Under the current agreement, ESPN will have access to 100 exclusive games for the 2026-27 season. 53 of those will be broadcast on ESPN or ABC, and the remaining 47 will be streamed exclusively on ESPN. Under current terms, the league’s playoffs will be split between Disney and TNT Sports.

Disney is particularly interested in acquiring the rights to more playoff games, one of the people said. Last season, the NHL had its most-watched playoff season on record, averaging 1.8 million viewers per game. The Stanley Cup averaged 5.2 million viewers, the largest audience since 2019. The game was between the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights, not necessarily famous NHL franchises.

Last year’s regular season averaged 546,000 viewers across ESPN/ABC and TNT Sports, an increase of 25% from the previous year and the highest average audience in more than a decade.

The sport is also at a culturally important moment. Earlier this year, HBO Max announced that its hockey romance series Heat Rivalry averaged an impressive 10.6 million viewers per episode.

International hockey competitions, such as the league’s annual Four-Nation Faceoff midseason tournament and the 2026 Winter Olympics, have garnered critical acclaim. The last “four-way” game, the 2025 final between the United States and Canada, drew 9.3 million viewers.

This year’s gold medal-winning men’s hockey game between the United States and Canada averaged an impressive 26 million viewers on NBC and Peacock in the United States, according to Nielsen data. This made the event, which began before 9 a.m. ET, the most-watched sporting event in U.S. history.

“I think we have the best content,” NHL commissioner Gary Bettman told CNBC last month. “Our ratings continue to rise, rising dramatically to double digits last year, so we believe we are entering the market in a very favorable position. That being said, the market is highly competitive and highly fragmented. However, with intense competition between traditional television and new media platforms, we believe there are great opportunities on both sides to expand our reach and receive compensation that we believe appropriately reflects our values.”

Recent history suggests the NHL will get the increased rights it wants. Starting last season, the NBA signed 11-year, $77 billion deals with Disney, Amazon and NBCUniversal, nearly tripling its national media rights revenue.

Last year, the NHL renewed its Canadian television rights agreement with Rogers Communications, marking an annual increase of more than 100% after adjusting for currency fluctuations.

However, recent history may not match current reality.

Skydance is interested in closing the deal, but its top priorities are paying off debt and saving money for what could be a significant NFL rights increase, potentially more than $1 billion per season, two of the people said.

Skydance is serious about renewing the NFL, one of the people said. Those negotiations would likely take place in 2028, as the league has an opt-out clause at the end of the 2029-30 season.

The NHL was an important sports property for Warner Bros. Discovery. The company could use its loyal fan base and sizeable playoff ratings to justify distribution fees to pay-TV providers while increasing HBO Max subscribers slightly.

Now that the Paramount-WBD partnership is in place, the NHL is less important in terms of distribution power to Skydance, which already has premier sports media rights to the NFL, Masters, College Football, March Madness, UFC, UEFA Champions League, and more.

That doesn’t mean the NHL isn’t a priority for Skydance. Skydance still needs programming for the cable networks it owns to keep its business on track. However, compared to WBD, it is not a must-have item.

“As it relates to future rights, we’re going to be disciplined,” Skydance CEO David Ellison said on an earnings call this week, possibly hinting that the company will remove not just the NHL but other rights from its WBD portfolio in the coming months and years. “Every right must earn its place.”

Most likely, Skydance will remain a partner but buy fewer NHL games or sublicense some games. This could open the door to new bidders. CNBC’s own parent company, Versant, would be interested in a piece of the NHL games. Amazon sniffs out nearly every state-run sports facility that comes on the market.

Netflix? NHL regular season games are certainly not events. Fox? NBCUniversal?Both companies need to worry about how much it will cost to renew the NFL. A big package of NHL games might not fit your strategy.

How much the NHL can extract from its media partners will set the bar for other media rights entering the market in the future, including MLB, which could be delayed by labor negotiations.

Disclosure: Versant Media is the parent company of CNBC.