Why Iran shouldn’t rely on Russia and China

As the US and Israeli attacks enter their third day, Iran’s close allies Russia and China have so far responded with only modest criticism, exposing the harsh limits of Russia’s “strategic partnership” with China.

Russian and Chinese officials condemned the U.S.-led airstrikes but stopped short of pledging military or civilian support to Tehran.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart on Sunday that he condemned the attack that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. “It is unacceptable for the United States and Israel to launch an attack against Iran, much less blatantly assassinate the leader of a sovereign nation and incite regime change,” he said.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry, which is stuck in the midst of an invasion of Ukraine, issued a statement saying the “act of aggression” violates international law and the fundamental principles of the United Nations Charter and “destabilizes the situation in the entire region.”

They reiterated their calls for an immediate ceasefire and a return to diplomatic dialogue to resolve the conflict. President Trump warned Sunday that U.S. combat operations in Iran will continue until all objectives are met and could extend into the next four weeks.

Gabriel Wildau, managing director specializing in China at advisory firm Teneo, said China’s official statements were “highly accusatory, but I doubt that the Chinese government will go beyond this rhetoric and take concrete action to support Tehran.”

“Maintaining detente with the United States remains a strategic priority for the Chinese leadership,” Wildau said, adding that top-level talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to take place later this month as planned.

President Trump and President Xi discussed a wide range of issues, including Iran, during their last phone call on February 4. They are scheduled to meet during President Trump’s visit to China.

“Instead of significantly watering down its message to Iran, Beijing may seek concessions on issues directly related to its interests, such as Taiwan and trade,” said Ahmed Abdou, a fellow at Chatham House, a London-based policy think tank.

“Iran has no true allies,” Niutanqin, a social media account linked to Chinese state media that is widely seen as a mouthpiece for the Chinese government, wrote on Monday, adding that even closer-knit countries would prioritize their own national interests over getting Iran out of crisis.

China’s restrained stance in militarily supporting Iran is not new.

According to Chatham House, a British think tank, China criticized the US and Israel for attacking Iran last year, but did not provide material support to Tehran.

China also supported U.N.-led economic sanctions against Tehran before the 2015 nuclear deal, and has since slowly moved to attract investment into Iran’s economy, according to the London-based Institute for Policy Studies.

After the United States detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 3, Beijing condemned the “blatant use of force” and called on Washington to “stop violating the sovereignty of other countries.” But it did little more than offer such words of condemnation.

China’s response to U.S. interventions in Venezuela and Iran shows that “a strategic partnership with China is far from guaranteeing a military alliance or even military support” in the face of “an existential threat from U.S. aggression,” Wildau said.

Tehran has become an important strategic, military, economic and trade partner for Moscow in the Middle East in recent years. Since Iran launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it has become an important supplier of military drones and missiles to Russia.

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Russia will fear losing another foothold in the Middle East as the Iranian regime will also collapse following the loss of another regional ally, Syria.

Despite Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemning the attack on Iran, neither the Kremlin nor President Vladimir Putin have spoken publicly about the situation. CNBC has reached out to the Kremlin for comment.

Matt Gerken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, told CNBC that years of intense war in Ukraine have hollowed out Russia’s ability to project power beyond its borders. Russia’s influence in the Middle East will further decline as its military becomes overstretched and its economy comes under continued pressure from Western sanctions, he added.

Russia will keep an eye on oil prices, as oil sales to China and India will finance its war machine. Oil prices rose more than 8% on Sunday evening as market participants feared the Iran conflict could cause major global supply disruptions.

Several countries in the OPEC+ group, including Russia, said on Sunday they would increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April to address potential shortages. Nevertheless, rising oil prices will help Russia.

“President Putin should be overjoyed, because anything that increases oil prices is good for him,” Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, told CNBC on Monday. “He can definitely say, ‘Even if we can’t get oil from the Gulf, we have plenty of oil.'”

Talks between Ukraine and Russia to end four years of war have made little progress in recent weeks.

“I think he (Putin) is definitely happy with the situation, but once the situation is resolved, President Trump will definitely turn to President Putin next,” Wald added.

Russia often takes a “wait-and-see” attitude toward world developments that do not directly affect its interests. When protests erupted in Iran in late December, Russia did not offer aid. Now, Russia may well take a step back and monitor whether the regime can survive a military attack by the United States and Israel.

Michael McFaul, a Stanford University professor and former U.S. ambassador to Russia, said there is no guarantee that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes alone will lead to regime change.

“Historically, air operations have not led to the overthrow of regimes. I can’t think of a single success story. Even military interventions on the ground (tend to fail),” he told CNBC.

“We are currently bombing military targets that are weapons systems directed at us and our partners and allies, but we are not removing military equipment and weapons that will be used to oppress the Iranian people.”

He added: “At this point, it is very unclear how this current military operation will lead to the regime change that President Trump has promised the Iranian people.”

—CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this article.