The NFL season is expected to generate approximately $40 billion in U.S. gambling activity, according to new projections from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.
Regulated sportsbooks still account for nearly four out of every five dollars wagered, with an estimated $31.7 billion in circulation, up about 8% from last season, the market researcher said.
But the field is facing its first real challenge. Although trading volumes cannot be directly compared to sportsbook handle amounts, EKG projects the market to be worth $8.4 billion in NFL betting activity, or 21% of the combined market share.
According to EKG, this increase is driven by growth in the overall addressable market. Prediction markets can offer sports contracts in states such as California, Texas and Georgia, where sports betting remains illegal, and in Florida, where the Seminole Tribe’s Hard Rock business dominates.
Early numbers show how quickly prediction markets are expanding. According to the company, the soccer contract volume on some exchanges from September 1 to September 14 reached 2.94 billion contracts, almost four times the same period last year.
During its kickoff week, Polymarket recorded 755,000 app downloads in the US, surpassing Kalshi’s 602,000. App download comparisons exclude: robin hood and coinbase Because their downloads reflect more than prediction markets.
“Prediction markets are growing the overall market, at least for now,” said Chris Grove, partner emeritus at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming. “By the time the Super Bowl rolls around, you’ll start to see more direct competition between sportsbooks and betting markets.”
EKG says there isn’t much evidence yet that prediction markets are taking significant business away from sportsbooks. draft kings and fan duelboth companies have launched their own forecasting platforms, but say they are only having a low-single-digit impact on handle growth at best. rush street interactive No noticeable effects were reported. BetMGM is a co-owner. MGM and entertainmore meaningful effects have been reported.
For consumers, sportsbooks also offer important benefits, such as deeper betting menus, more sophisticated apps, and established loyalty programs.
EKG estimates that parlays account for more than 40% of regulated NFL handles and could account for approximately 75% of sportsbook NFL revenue due to their high margins.
Forecasting platforms are copying that playbook. Piper Sandler said combination contracts, which are essentially prediction market parlays, now account for the majority of Calsi’s trading volume. As of the latest reporting date, the total trading volume of the eight exchanges Pipertrack amounted to approximately $2.48 billion, led by Karshi with $1.93 billion and Polymarket with $403.6 million.
An ad for sports betting site Novig featuring actress Sydney Sweeney appears in New York City’s Times Square on September 16, 2026.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
And beyond Karshi and Polymarket, the field is even more crowded. Emerging competitors Novig and Underdog are working to drive soccer fans and their dollars to their platforms. Novig’s volume is up 77% from the previous month to $43 million, while the underdog’s volume is up 80% to $26.5 million, according to Piper Sandler’s latest tally.
Novig is looking to turn that growth into national brand recognition with its new “Just Sports” campaign featuring actress and influencer Sydney Sweeney. Sweeney has reportedly acquired a stake in the forecasting platform. The provocative ad garnered a lot of attention and criticism, taking a page from the same celebrity-driven marketing strategy sportsbooks have used for years.
For now, sportsbooks are still on top, but prediction markets are putting them on the defensive.
CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes minority investment and customer acquisition.
